Thursday, November 19, 2009

Week 10 Didn't Clear Anything Up For Us

After Week 10's action, the only thing that is solved is that the Colts are going to have home field advantage throughout the playoffs and that Bill Belichick is borderline insane. The Colts have a two-game lead over the next best team in the AFC, the Bengals and now have a three-game lead over the usual powerhouses, New England, Pittsburgh and San Diego. I don't think its going out on the limb saying that they'll secure the #1 seed in the AFC.

As for the rest of the NFL...who knows? Here's a look at the playoff picture right now.

AFC
1. Indianapolis Colts 9-0
2. Cincinnati Bengals 7-2
3. Denver Broncos 6-3
4. New England Patriots 6-3
5. Pittsburgh Steelers 6-3
6. San Diego Chargers 6-3

On the outside looking in: Baltimore Ravens (5-4), Houston Texans (5-4), Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4) Miami Dolphins (4-5), New York Jets (4-5)

The NFC playoff picture is even less clear:

1. New Orleans Saints 9-0
2. Minnesota Vikings 8-1
3. Dallas Cowboys 6-3
4. Arizona Cardinals 6-3
Four-way tie at 5-4: Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons, New York Giants
Other teams on the outside looking in: San Francisco 49ers (4-5), Chicago Bears (4-5), Carolina Panthers (4-5)

Each week it appears to look more and more like we will see the Saints and Vikings face each other in the NFC Championship Game. Obviously it's way too early to know, but the inconsistency of everyone else in the NFC makes me feel were destined for a Saints-Vikings matchup. Both teams have all but clinched their respective divisions and should have plenty of time to rest and be perfectly healthy going into the playoffs.

Of course the NFC East is a mess right now. It seems like none of the teams even want to win this thing. It must've been nice for the Giants to have a bye and see both the Cowboys and Eagles lose. If it continues down this road, we may actually see the Redskins get back into the race. A Skins win over Dallas could have the entire D.C. area talking about the Super Bowl again. And I really don't want to hear that nonsense.

There are 7 NFC teams within a game of each other all battling for 2 playoff spots (of course some of these teams still have a good shot at winning their divisions as well). This is one jumbled-up playoff race.

Next week will be huge for these NFC wildcard hopefuls, with 6 of the 7 facing each other. The 49ers travel to Lambeau, the Eagles will face the Bears, and the Giants will host the Falcons.

In the AFC, the Bengals are in great shape to win the North with their season sweeps of the Steelers and Ravens. They'll be awarded three easy matchups for their hard work. Their next three games are against Oakland, Detroit and Cleveland.

The Patriots look to have a firm grasp on the AFC East, but if the Jets can somehow pull off another upset over the Pats this week things could get very interesting. A Jets win would pull them to within a game of the division lead and they'd have the tiebreaker over New England.

When people ask how the west was won they will probably look at this week's Chargers-Broncos matchup. These two teams are heading in completely opposite directions. Since the last time these two teams met the Chargers haven't lost and the Broncos haven't won. The health of Kyle Orton may go a long way in deciding this one.

So obviously nothing was cleared up from last week. But I'll try to clear things up with my projections for who will be in the postseason.

AFC
1. Colts
2. Patriots
3. Bengals
4. Chargers
5. Steelers
6. Chargers

NFC
1. Saints
2. Vikings
3. Giants
4. 49ers
5. Eagles
6. Arizona

So let's start off with the AFC. I've already talked about how the Colts have locked up the top spot. The Patriots have a very favorable schedule and I think they'll move ahead of the Bengals for the 2nd seed. I'm not convinced on the Bengals yet and could very easily see the Steelers win the AFC North. But I like Cincy because of their tiebreaker and their next three games.

But down the line it will be much tougher with trips to Minnesota, San Diego and New York left on the schedule. The Chargers will complete yet another comeback over the Broncos and steal the division. I like the way the Chargers defense is playing, especially Shawn Merriman who is making a bit of a resurgence. Philip Rivers somehow seems to stay under the radar despite putting up big numbers week after week.

I do think the slipping Broncos will edge out the final wildcard spot. The Ravens schedule is just too tough and the Texans and Jaguars are a year away (I know people have been saying that about Houston for years).

In the NFC, there's no surprise as to who will be sitting out during the wildcard round of the playoffs. I think New Orleans will go 15-1 with their one loss coming to the Patriots in a couple weeks. I see the Vikings going 13-3, maybe 14-2 on the season.

Now it gets interesting. For some reason I just don't see the Cowboys winning the NFC East. They're too inconsistent. Case in point their pathetic offensive performance in Green Bay last week. I don't think this team takes care of the ball or plays smart enough to be a playoff team. The Giants are too talented to continue to play as bad as they have. I think they'll turn things around starting this week at home against Atlanta.

Now for my biggest surprise of them all...the 49ers. Yes, I'm biased but hear me out for a minute. After this week at Green Bay the schedule is pretty cake: Jacksonville, @ Seattle, Arizona, @ Philadelphia, Detroit, @ St. Louis. The Cardinals do look impressive right now but they have a three-game stretch where they play at Tennessee (a different team as of late), host Minnesota and then travel to San Francisco. The Monday night matchup between the Niners and Cards will probably determine what happens. But remember the Niners already defeated Arizona on the road, so they can definitely do it at home. And that would give them the tiebreaker...and I think these teams will be tied at the end of it all. With Frank Gore healthy and playing well and Alex Smith getting more acclimated with the offense I feel like the offense will turn it around

I have the Eagles and Cardinals as the two wildcards in whatever order. These two offenses are very explosive and make them dangerous in the postseason. For the teams left out, I think the Packers line is too weak and Aaron Rodgers will be lucky to finish the season. Matt Ryan is making in too many mistakes in his sophomore campaign and the Michael Turner injury will put even more pressure on Ryan. The Cowboys will find a way to choke as always.

I'm sure you won't find anyone else with these playoff projections. As the Gridiron Guru you gotta go out on the limb sometimes.

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