The Gridiron Guru

Playoffs? Who Said Anything about Playoffs?

2009-12-12T21:50:00.000-05:00

With just four weeks left in the regular season it's time to talk about playoffs whether the players and coaches want to or not. Mike Tomlin won't have to worry about any playoff discussion. Whatever slim chance the Steelers had of making the postseason went out the door with their horrendous touchdown-less loss to the Browns.

There are 17 teams (8 in the NFC, 9 in the AFC) that are still alive in the playoff hunt. In the NFC you have the Saints, Vikings, Cards, Cowboys, Eagles, Packers, Giants and Falcons. In the AFC there's the Colts, Chargers, Bengals, Patriots, Broncos, Jaguars, Ravens, Jets and Dolphins. I'm eliminating any seven-loss team from the race.

As interesting as the wildcard race should be, the division races may not be as suspenseful. The Saints and Colts have already clinched their respective divisions. The Vikings, Cardinals and Bengals all have commanding leads in their divisions. We didn't think there would be much competition for the Patriots in the AFC East. But all of a sudden things have gotten very interesting with the Pats losing three of four games. The Dolphins and Jets are just one game back and both split their season series with the Pats. However the Jets are in a tougher situation with a 2-4 division record. They will lose any tiebreaker with the Pats or Fins.

No one is talking about the AFC West race. It's almost as if everyone has assumed the Chargers have wrapped the division up. They are the hottest team in football not named the Colts or Saints but the Broncos lie just one game back. Denver has played much better the past couple weeks, reestablishing their running game. This may be the deciding week with the Broncos going to Indianapolis and the Chargers going to Dallas.

The most interesting division race will be the NFC East. I am waiting for the typical Cowboys choke job in December just like everyone else. This year it might not even be considered a choke job if it happens. The Cowboys have a brutal stretch to close the season starting with this week's game against San Diego. We very well could have a three-way tie for first after tomorrow's games if Dallas and Philly lose. Of course the Eagles are facing the Giants, who actually would have the tiebreaker as of now should this happen. But a loss would put them in serious trouble and all but out of the playoffs. On that note here are my picks for Week 14.

Vikings over Bengals
I think this will be a very close game and a really intriguing matchup. The Bengals have played very well on the road, beating teams like the Ravens, Steelers and Packers. But playing in the dome will get the usually high flying Vikings offense back on track. Expect a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson because I think he and the Vikings offensive line have something to prove.

Jaguars over Dolphins
This matchup involves the two quietest teams still in playoff contention. Hello everybody don't you realize that the Jaguars are 7-5 and the 6th seed in the AFC right now? I don't even think the city of Jacksonville knows. There might be more Miami fans in this standes even though it's in Jacksonville. I like the balance the Jags have on offense. Mercedes Lewis has stepped up as a reliable target along with Mike Sims-Walker. But the key as always is to get the ball to Jones-Drew as much as possible. On the other side of the ball, I dont think Miami has the quality of receivers to burn the Jags weak secondary.

Colts over Broncos
The Broncos are almost as forgotten as the Jaguars after a 6-0 start that seemed like it occurred last season. I don't see any way a team not named the Chargers wins in Indianapolis this year. You think Peyton Manning cares that the Broncos secondary has more Pro Bowls than anyone else? He doesn't and he'll make them look like AARP members when the game is over.

Chargers over Cowboys
The team that never wins in December hosts the team that hasn't lost in the last four Decembers. I've been waiting for this Dallas defense to be exposed all season and it has continued to do a very good job. But the Chargers passing attack will finally make this secondary look bad. Antonio Gates has been a monster the past few weeks and LT is scoring TD like the good old days. Expect another tumultuous week in Big D this week.

Giants over Eagles
The Giants could actually be back in first place. It's hard to believe but I'm calling for it to happen. The Giants front four finally did something productive last week and I think they can build off of that in this game. Ultimately I think both of these teams will be in the playoffs and the Cowboys will be the ones sobbing on their couches at home in January.

That's all for now. Check out more from the Gridiron Guru next week.

49ers' Playoff Hopes Fade Away

2009-12-10T16:27:00.000-05:00

A Season that Began with High Hopes Looks to be Ending in Disappointment

During this offseason the two words that will be uttered the most around the 49ers clubhouse and throughout the city of San Francisco will be "What if". What if Brett Favre didn't throw that miracle last-second touchdown in Week 3? What if Alex Smith doesn't throw that ill-advised pass on the final drive against the Texans that was intercepted to end it? What if he didn't throw the two picks in the 4th quarter against Tennessee? What if the Niners found a way to hang on to that 4th quarter lead in Indianapolis? What if the defense found a way to stop the Packers in the final 5:30 in Lambeau and give the offense the ball back? Would they have been able to complete that 20 point comeback if they got that stop? What if Vernon Davis catches that touchdown pass late in last week's Seattle game and the Niners don't settle for a game-tying field goal? What if the Niners came into Monday night's matchup against the Cardinals with a chance to grab first place?

Unfortunately there are no answers to these questions and the "What ifs" will have to remain just that. It will be a tough offseason for this young team, a team that has yet to have the taste of playoff football. Barring some sort of miracle, the Niners will have to wait another year for that opportunity. Taking out their blowout loss to Atlanta, San Francisco lost their other 6 games by a total of 26 points. The 49ers were within one score in all six of those losses. It's simple...the 49ers just find ways to lose.

What's even more frustrating is that Mike Singletary preaches disciplined, tough football to this team. And then they play it for 45 minutes before folding when it matters most. Prime examples were the losses to Minnesota, Indianapolis and Tennessee. Or they'll come out totally flat and wake up sometime in the 2nd half when it's too late. This was the case in losses at Houston and Green Bay.

There might not be another team that can be as hot and cold in the course of one game. You'll see teams like Pittsburgh or Denver steamroll teams one week and then lose to awful teams the next. But how often do you see a team pull the Dr. Jekyll and Mr Hyde act during one game. This is what the offense does on a regular basis. And the defense certainly isn't the model of consistency. Good football teams find ways to overcome mistakes and make plays when there backs are against the wall. So if you put the pieces of the puzzle together...the Niners aren't a good football team, they just have the look of one at select, inconvenient times.

There is a lot of promise on this football team, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Rookie Michael Crabtree missed training camp and the first five weeks of the regular season and has still played like a legitimate #1 wide receiver, catching 32 passes for 406 yards and a touchdown.. Wide receiver Josh Morgan is just in his second season and has played very well in this new spread offense and has been a great complement to Crabtree. These two young receivers could become one of the best tandems in the league in the future. Then there's Vernon Davis who has been the go-to receiver in this offense and maybe the best redzone tight end in the league this season. Davis leads the NFL with 10 TD receptions this season. He is a freak athlete, the most athletic of any tight end. No other tight end has his combination of strength (benches around 470 lbs), speed (ran a 4.38 at NFL combine) or his leaping ability (vertical jump of 42 inches). Gore is still just 26 years old and should be good for another 2 or 3 solid years, although he has dealt with numerous injuries over the past couple seasons.

The big decision in the offseason will be what to do with Alex Smith. The #1 overall pick in 2005 has been considered a bust until recently and after Week 4 it seemed certain that he would be gone after the season. He has surprised everyone with his play this year and there will be plenty of teams who could use him as a starter if the Niners don't hang on to him. Most likely Smith will remain a 49er, unless he tanks in the final four weeks of the season. I'm interested to see how he does under the bright spotlight on Monday Night. As well as Smith has played this year, he has still faded under pressure. As a 49er quarterback this isn't acceptable. This city is used to their leader rising to the occasion. Montana and Young were clutch performers. Smith is no Young or Montana, but he still has the potential to be better than he's been in big situations.

There is certainly plenty for this team to look back on and think about. And there's still a chance to make a mark this season with four more games on the schedule. The tough losses should serve as a learning experience for the team. After all, you have to experience failure before you can experience success. But for now they'll just have to stick with "What if?"

Vince Young, Drew Brees Dominate Week 12 Headlines

2009-12-02T02:02:00.000-05:00

Young's Titanic Drive
As Matt Leinart watched Vince Young make a last-minute, remarkable drive on Sunday he must've had a serious case of deja vu. Of course a little under four years ago it was Young who led his Longhorns in the closing seconds to a game-winning touchdown that stole a third consecutive national title from Leinart and the USC Trojans. This drive may not have been on as bright of a stage, but it was even more impressive.

If you look at the situation the Titans were facing, it was almost impossible to have the odds stacked against them any more than they were. Tennesse started the drive from their own 1 with 2:37 remaining. They converted on fourth down three times on the drive, including the final play of the game and a 4th and 4 from their own 7.

Disregarding the fact that this was a regular season game, Vince Young's drive could be considered one of the best drives of all time. John Elway's famous drive against the Cleveland Browns in the 1987 AFC Championship game covered 98 yards but took over five minutes. Joe Montana's drive in Super Bowl XXIII was just 92 yards and took over three minutes. And neither of these drives resulted in touchdowns on the last play from scrimmage. For Vince Young to go 99 yards in two and a half minutes is incredible, especially for someone who's just a month removed from riding the bench.

Whatever doubts the Titans had toward Young being the franchise quarterback were silenced after Young's drive. He showed tremendous poise under immense pressure, mixing timely runs with crisp, accurate passes. I'm not really sure why the Titans were so fast to bench Young for Kerry Collins last season. Young has been a proven winner throughout his career. He won the national championship at Texas, and he took the Titans to the playoffs in 2007 But for some reason after a bad opening game and a minor mental breakdown last season the Titans gave up on him. Young has come back with a vengeance to silence his critics with his 5-0 record as a starter this season.

Young is proving that the era of the dual-threat quarterback isn't quite over. Across the league, we've seen the quarterback position retreat back to pocket passing for the most part. Not only are there no quarterbacks that can run as well as Young, there are very few that even deserve a running play called for them. Young has been criticized in the past for giving up on the pass and running too often . But thus far he's been perfect with how he's balanced the two. His ability to make plays with his feet is helping the Titans overcome a below-par receiving corps because defensive backs have to keep an eye on him at all times.

It's unlikely that Young and the Titans will run the table like they probably need to in order to make the playoffs. But at least the Titans know where to go with their future.

Saints Brees-ing by the Pats
It's weird but over the past couple weeks Drew Brees was sort of flying under the radar as the MVP talks shifted toward Favre and Manning. Brees changed that in a hurry with his performance last night against the overmatched Patriots. You could tell that Brees wanted to make a statement not only for his MVP chances, but for his career. He wants to be put on the same level as Manning, Brady and Favre. Outplaying Brady like he did on national television did a lot for his cause.

Sean Payton called this game like he wanted to make a statement also. On the first play of the game he attacked the Pats with a long pass play to Devery Henderson. He repeatedly went for big plays on the first play of a drive, which would immediately suck away any momentum the Pats had and ignite the raucous Superdome crowd. Payton outsmarted and humiliated Bill Belichick in this one. He even went for it on 4th down in the 2nd quarter as if to say "Yea, we can do that too." Payton was Belichick-esque in the way he exploited the Pats weaknesses.

Give a lot of credit to defensive coordinator Gregg Williams as well. When have you ever seen Tom Brady look that out of sync? He also shut down Wes Welker to just 6 catches for 32 yards. The Saints defense was always there to stick Welker as soon as he caught the ball. It was a lot of fun to see the looks of pure frustration on the sidelines especially from Welker and Brady. I've never seen them so upset and confused.

After the Niners, the Saints are my favorite team. They're so explosive, versatile and exciting to watch. On any given play they can score, whether they're on offense, defense or special teams. But I think I like them even more because of their city and fans. After Hurricane Katrina, the city of New Orleans has rallied around this team. The passion these fans possess is unmatched around the league. The atmosphere of Saints' games is similar to that of a college game and the Superdome is easily the loudest stadium in the NFL. And then you see the fans stay after the game during ESPN's Monday night recap. I could barely even hear Stuart Scott talk over the "Who dat? Who dat? Who dat say dey gonna beat dem Saints?" How do you not love that?

But let's get back to Brees and his case for MVP. He's 1st in passer rating, 1st in passing TDs, 4th in completion percentage and 5th in yards. So statistically he's got the numbers right now. The biggest thing he's got going for him is that there are no true stars on his team. Don't get me wrong, his supporting cast is extremely talented collectively. But I don't know if there's another Pro-bowler on that offense. Manning has Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. Brady has Moss and Welker. Favre has Adrian Peterson. Brees makes everyone around him better, similar to Manning. Also, if the Saints go undefeated he has the "I'm the best player on the best team argument."

One of the problems for Brees (if you want to call this a problem) is that his team has been too dominant and hasn't really needed him to make a last minute drive or a huge comeback to win. This shows that the entire team is playing well enough to have most games sealed up by the fourth quarter. Favre and Manning have had to lead their teams on comebacks numerous times. And the other this is the turnovers. Brees has thrown 9 interceptions as opposed to Favre's 3. Manning has 11 picks but his play late in games has made most of us forget them. Right now I'm calling it a three-way tie but I feel like Manning is going to find a way to squeak it out. The entire world is in consensus that no one player is more important to their team than Manning.

Defending champs lose 3rd straight, in jeopardy of missing playoffs
This is unfamiliar territory for the Steelers. They've now lost 3 in a row and are on the outside looking in. A lot can be blamed on misfortune. Come this time of the year the best teams are usually the healthiest and the Steelers certainly aren't. Without Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers couldn't really attack this weak Ravens secondary. And without Troy Polamalu, the Steelers didn't have anyone to contain Ray Rice who exploded for 155 total yards.

Dennis Dixon played well considering he was thrown into as tough a situation a quarterback can face. But his inexperience finally caught up to haunt him when he threw the interception in overtime that put the Ravens in field goal range. Things should get better for the Steelers as they get Roethlisberger back and face the Raiders and Browns in the next two weeks. It's very likely that the next Ravens-Steelers matchup will determine the wildcard playoff teams in the AFC.

49ers are still alive
No one was a bigger fan of Vince Young than me on Sunday. The 49ers' season was hanging in the balance on every one of those 18 plays on that epic drive. The Cardinals' loss dropped them to 7-4 and just two games up on the Niners who are 5-6 after their win over Jacksonville. Now the Cardinals play host to the Vikings while the Niners travel to Seattle. If the Niners win and Cards lose there will be just a one game gap and the two will face each other next week on Monday night for the division lead. Things could get interesting in a hurry.

But the Niners better not look ahead and take Seattle for granted. Seattle is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. On Sunday, San Francisco played their most complete game since a Week 4 win over the Rams. I finally got to see the offense open things up and air it out. Alex Smith is so much better running the spread offense and finally the coaching staff has put him in a position to succeed. This offense has the potential to be very dangerous. Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan are a pretty good 1-2 receiver combo and have plenty of time to improve. Vernon Davis is a Pro-bowler and a go-to target in the redzone. And Frank Gore is continuing his success as a rusher and a receiver.

Smith got the ball into the hands of his play-makers often against the Jags. The one concern is the running game, which averaged just 2.6 yards per carry. The offensive line is struggling to open up holes without Joe Staley and Tony Pashos. Running the spread is giving Smith just enough time to get rid of the ball though.

It's still clear that the Niners' secondary has some glaring weaknesses but I'm happy with how the defense held strong when the Jags got into the red zone. The defense did a great job in getting to David Garrard and forced two crucial fumbles. That is the kind of performance Mike Singletary has been hoping for and will need consistently in order for this team to make the playoffs.

Troubling Falcons overcome injuries to find a way to win.
Atlanta probably saved their season with their last second touchdown from Chris Redman to Roddy White to defeat the Bucs. But the joy of this win should be short-lived because Matt Ryan and Michael Turner won't be playing next week. Roddy White has been banged up as well and hasn't been nearly as effective as he was early on in the season. Redman played pretty well last week but it won't be easy for him against the Eagles next week. I just don't see this team being able to overcome all of these injuries and make the playoffs.

Week 11 Fantasy and Game Predictions

2009-11-22T01:50:00.000-05:00

Will the Saints and Colts remain undefeated? Will the Patriots get revenge on the Jets and end the "Why did you go for it on 4th and 2" talks? Will the Chargers continue their hot streak and take the division lead? Will this playoff race get any clearer after this week? These are all questions that will be answered tomorrow. But I'll try my best to answer them now.

Here are my picks:

Colts over Ravens
The "Charm City Classic" matchup between the team that broke Baltimore's hearts against the team that has their hearts figures to be a pretty good matchup. The Ravens are better than their record says, losing by just 21 points in their four losses and winning big when they've won. It's surprising to see that the Ravens are favored in this one but I'm not buying them winning this one. Their defense is not what it used to be despite a deceiving shutout victory over Cleveland last week. Corners Fabian Washington and Domonique Foxworth have been getting burned for most of the season. Reggie Wayne is not who these guys want to see right now. Plus Peyton Manning is known to be a Raven-killer. Throw in the injury to Terrell Suggs and I just don't see the Ravens being able to stop this machine that is the Colts' offense.

Giants over Falcons
After a bye week and a lot of time to work on things and get healthy, I think the Giants will come out with a W. The Falcons are going to have to go without the heart of their offense, Michael Turner, who is out with an ankle injury. This will put even more pressure on Matt Ryan who is in a serious rut right now. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons defense isn't much to brag about right now. I think Eli will get back on track as well.

Patriots over Jets
The Pats haven't lost two games in a row since 2006 when ironically they lost to the Colts and Jets in consecutive games. I don't see that happening again here. Tom Brady and the Pats offense have the most to prove with the way they were held in check in the last matchup between these two teams. Brady wasn't quite himself the last time they played the Jets but he is on top of his game now and will throw for over 300 yards once again.

Chargers over Broncos
Anyone that saw Chris Simms play last week knows that the Broncos are in serious trouble if he has to play in place of Kyle Orton. Orton is a gametime decision and won't be 100% if he does play. The formula to stop the Broncos in recent weeks has been stack up against the run and make Orton beat you in the passing game. (which hasn't happened). The Chargers are playing at their best right now which means even more trouble for this reeling Broncos team.

Eagles over Bears
Jay Cutler is playing in primetime football once again. You know what that means? Should be another epic choke job. In three primetime games this season, Cutler has thrown 11 picks. The Eagles will have to go a while with Lesean Mccoy as their starting running back with all the concussions to Brian Westbrook. I hope Westbrook will have a swift recovery but I'm not sure if it really matters who's in the backfield for Philly with as much as they've thrown the ball (Donovan McNabb threw it 55 times last week). For the Eagles this is almost a must-win game after losing two straight. I like them in this one, even on the road.

Fantasy Heroes
Brandon Jacobs RB NYG
Jacobs has been disappointing fantasy owners this season, mainly because the Giants have been throwing the ball more than usual and Ahmad Bradshaw has been taking a lot of his carries. But the Falcons are ranked 25th in the NFL against the run. If the Giants were smart, they'd get back to their bread and butter and run the ball.

Beanie Wells RB ARI
Wells has started to come on lately but Cardinals fans are waiting for him to really break out. I think he'll get more carries than usual against the Rams, especially with all the garbage time. And that should mean a big day for big Beanie.

Roddy White WR ATL
I own White in both of my fantasy leagues and have been disappointed to see him not get into the end zone the past couple weeks. But he's always going to get plenty of targets. I think he'll score this week and put up big numbers because with Jason Snelling as the Falcons running back they are going to need to pass. The Giants secondary has been giving up big plays all year and might be seeing the back of White's jersey quite often.

Calvin Johnson WR DET
Calvin is back in the lineup now and has a very favorable matchup against the Browns this week. I am just waiting for the world to realize the immense talent that this kid has. I'm looking for a big game...maybe over 100 yards and a touchdown in this one.

Rashard Mendenhall RB PIT
Mendenhall has always been hit or miss in fantasy. Last week he got me 5 points. But this week is a different story when the Steelers face the Chiefs and I think Mendenhall will have an impressive performance.

Fantasy Zeroes
Joseph Addai RB IND
The Ravens pass defense is pretty poor but their ability to stop the run is about the same as it's always been. Addai doesn't usually get more than 12 or 15 carries anyway. He may get a few catches but I don't think he will be able to continue the recent success.

Darren Sporles RB SD
We haven't seen a whole lot of Sproles in recent weeks because LT has been healthy and running well. Denver has a pretty good run defense anyway so I wouldn't expect him to touch the ball more than five times in this one.

Todd Heap TE BAL
Heap is only an average tight end at best this season. Now he faces a Colts' defense that allows the fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends. The Ravens will probably look outside to their wideouts or to their biggest playmaker, Ray Rice.

Santana Moss WR WAS
I'm giving up on Moss now. I can't believe that he's the #1 receiver on this team with his pathetic numbers this season. The Skins need to give up on him as their big play guy and find some big receivers who can actually get open (not Malcolm Kelly or Devin Thomas).

Jay Cutler QB CHI
See above.

Thanks for reading. I'll be back to recap everything next week.

Week 10 Didn't Clear Anything Up For Us

2009-11-19T01:51:00.000-05:00

After Week 10's action, the only thing that is solved is that the Colts are going to have home field advantage throughout the playoffs and that Bill Belichick is borderline insane. The Colts have a two-game lead over the next best team in the AFC, the Bengals and now have a three-game lead over the usual powerhouses, New England, Pittsburgh and San Diego. I don't think its going out on the limb saying that they'll secure the #1 seed in the AFC.

As for the rest of the NFL...who knows? Here's a look at the playoff picture right now.

AFC
1. Indianapolis Colts 9-0
2. Cincinnati Bengals 7-2
3. Denver Broncos 6-3
4. New England Patriots 6-3
5. Pittsburgh Steelers 6-3
6. San Diego Chargers 6-3

On the outside looking in: Baltimore Ravens (5-4), Houston Texans (5-4), Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4) Miami Dolphins (4-5), New York Jets (4-5)

The NFC playoff picture is even less clear:

1. New Orleans Saints 9-0
2. Minnesota Vikings 8-1
3. Dallas Cowboys 6-3
4. Arizona Cardinals 6-3
Four-way tie at 5-4: Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons, New York Giants
Other teams on the outside looking in: San Francisco 49ers (4-5), Chicago Bears (4-5), Carolina Panthers (4-5)

Each week it appears to look more and more like we will see the Saints and Vikings face each other in the NFC Championship Game. Obviously it's way too early to know, but the inconsistency of everyone else in the NFC makes me feel were destined for a Saints-Vikings matchup. Both teams have all but clinched their respective divisions and should have plenty of time to rest and be perfectly healthy going into the playoffs.

Of course the NFC East is a mess right now. It seems like none of the teams even want to win this thing. It must've been nice for the Giants to have a bye and see both the Cowboys and Eagles lose. If it continues down this road, we may actually see the Redskins get back into the race. A Skins win over Dallas could have the entire D.C. area talking about the Super Bowl again. And I really don't want to hear that nonsense.

There are 7 NFC teams within a game of each other all battling for 2 playoff spots (of course some of these teams still have a good shot at winning their divisions as well). This is one jumbled-up playoff race.

Next week will be huge for these NFC wildcard hopefuls, with 6 of the 7 facing each other. The 49ers travel to Lambeau, the Eagles will face the Bears, and the Giants will host the Falcons.

In the AFC, the Bengals are in great shape to win the North with their season sweeps of the Steelers and Ravens. They'll be awarded three easy matchups for their hard work. Their next three games are against Oakland, Detroit and Cleveland.

The Patriots look to have a firm grasp on the AFC East, but if the Jets can somehow pull off another upset over the Pats this week things could get very interesting. A Jets win would pull them to within a game of the division lead and they'd have the tiebreaker over New England.

When people ask how the west was won they will probably look at this week's Chargers-Broncos matchup. These two teams are heading in completely opposite directions. Since the last time these two teams met the Chargers haven't lost and the Broncos haven't won. The health of Kyle Orton may go a long way in deciding this one.

So obviously nothing was cleared up from last week. But I'll try to clear things up with my projections for who will be in the postseason.

AFC
1. Colts
2. Patriots
3. Bengals
4. Chargers
5. Steelers
6. Chargers

NFC
1. Saints
2. Vikings
3. Giants
4. 49ers
5. Eagles
6. Arizona

So let's start off with the AFC. I've already talked about how the Colts have locked up the top spot. The Patriots have a very favorable schedule and I think they'll move ahead of the Bengals for the 2nd seed. I'm not convinced on the Bengals yet and could very easily see the Steelers win the AFC North. But I like Cincy because of their tiebreaker and their next three games.

But down the line it will be much tougher with trips to Minnesota, San Diego and New York left on the schedule. The Chargers will complete yet another comeback over the Broncos and steal the division. I like the way the Chargers defense is playing, especially Shawn Merriman who is making a bit of a resurgence. Philip Rivers somehow seems to stay under the radar despite putting up big numbers week after week.

I do think the slipping Broncos will edge out the final wildcard spot. The Ravens schedule is just too tough and the Texans and Jaguars are a year away (I know people have been saying that about Houston for years).

In the NFC, there's no surprise as to who will be sitting out during the wildcard round of the playoffs. I think New Orleans will go 15-1 with their one loss coming to the Patriots in a couple weeks. I see the Vikings going 13-3, maybe 14-2 on the season.

Now it gets interesting. For some reason I just don't see the Cowboys winning the NFC East. They're too inconsistent. Case in point their pathetic offensive performance in Green Bay last week. I don't think this team takes care of the ball or plays smart enough to be a playoff team. The Giants are too talented to continue to play as bad as they have. I think they'll turn things around starting this week at home against Atlanta.

Now for my biggest surprise of them all...the 49ers. Yes, I'm biased but hear me out for a minute. After this week at Green Bay the schedule is pretty cake: Jacksonville, @ Seattle, Arizona, @ Philadelphia, Detroit, @ St. Louis. The Cardinals do look impressive right now but they have a three-game stretch where they play at Tennessee (a different team as of late), host Minnesota and then travel to San Francisco. The Monday night matchup between the Niners and Cards will probably determine what happens. But remember the Niners already defeated Arizona on the road, so they can definitely do it at home. And that would give them the tiebreaker...and I think these teams will be tied at the end of it all. With Frank Gore healthy and playing well and Alex Smith getting more acclimated with the offense I feel like the offense will turn it around

I have the Eagles and Cardinals as the two wildcards in whatever order. These two offenses are very explosive and make them dangerous in the postseason. For the teams left out, I think the Packers line is too weak and Aaron Rodgers will be lucky to finish the season. Matt Ryan is making in too many mistakes in his sophomore campaign and the Michael Turner injury will put even more pressure on Ryan. The Cowboys will find a way to choke as always.

I'm sure you won't find anyone else with these playoff projections. As the Gridiron Guru you gotta go out on the limb sometimes.

Belichick Gets Busted

2009-11-17T01:12:00.000-05:00

Throughout Bill Belichick's career there has always been this aura of invincibility surrounding him. Common belief has said that you can't outsmart him. His play calling and decision-making has rarely been questioned, unless it was whether or not he was running up the score. And when a team beat his Pats, he usually found a way to adjust and return the favor the next time. But somewhere along the line the success of his team and his quarterback has gotten to his head and he thinks he can move the chains in any third or fourth down situation. Maybe last night's debacle in Indy will serve as a wake up call.

When I saw the Pats offense line up on that play the first thing that went through my mind as well as everyone else's mind had to be that they were just trying to draw the Colts' defense offside. I'm sitting there like "OK you're wasting your time time they won't jump...What?!! They're actually going through with it?". I originally thought Faulk's forward progress got him the first down on the catch. And even after watching the replay I still think he may have had the yardage necessary. Of course it's the Pats fault for not being able to challenge the play because they wasted all their timeouts just moments earlier.

I was really angry at the time because I thought Belichick had cost me my fantasy battle. At the time of the play I was up 7 points with Brady on my team but my opponent had Manning and Dallas Clark. Thank God the TD went to Reggie Wayne and not Clark...allowing me to escape with a three-point victory.

Now after the play I immediately thought that Belichick was trying to catch the Colts defense (who may have been expecting Brady to draw them offside) sitting on their heels because they would be trying so hard not to jump offside. Maybe Belichick thought that this moment of hesitation would allow them to get the two yards needed for the first down. Even if Belichick had this mindset I don't think it would've been the right decision, but at least it would've been a nifty thought and I'd have more respect for the decision. But it's clear that this didn't even cross his mind. He never mentioned it in either of his press conferences. He just thought he could gain two yards and seal the victory. His over-confidence came back to bite him.

This time the mad scientist was in way over his head. The chances of getting that first down are 50/50 at best...and when you have a six-point lead with two minutes remaining, the result of the game shouldn't be determined by a coin flip. When you make a decision you have to figure in the consequences and Belichick just flat out ignored them. Going against Peyton Manning probably had something to do with the decision to go for it. But that's also the reason not to go for it. Giving Peyton Manning the ball on the 30 yard line is like cutting your wrists and jumping in a shark tank...it's all over. At least if you punt and he gets it at his own 30 yard line you give your defense (which played pretty well for most of the game) a chance. Even with Manning behind center, it's not easy to go 70 yards in 2 minutes without a timeout. I don't think anyone ever made Manning feel better about himself than Belichick did last night.

As much of a compliment as it was to Manning, Belichick's decision was even more of an insult to his defense. Coming in to that game the Pats had the second best scoring defense (Colts are first) in the league! Instead Belichick threw them under the bus, forcing them to try and stop Manning and Co. on a short field. If I were on that Pats defense, I'd be pretty ticked off.

This may have been the best game we've seen between these two teams and it almost certainly will be considered the best game of the regular season. We got to see two hall of fame quarterbacks at the peak of their careers. The "Who's Better: Tom Brady of Peyton Manning" is probably the biggest debate in football and last night may have muddled it more for everyone. Personally, I'd take Manning. We also got to see maybe the two best wide receivers in football. Randy Moss and Wayne are 1-2 in receiving yards and probably both will be hall of famers as well (Moss is already a lock). We saw plenty of big plays, scoring, controversial calls, and an epic comeback. What more can you ask for?

The difference in this game was simply... clock management. The Colts were absolutely perfect in the way they used the clock during the 4th quarter. Down 34-21 with less than five minutes left they scored in just over two minutes. With all three timeouts left they were able to kick the ball away even though they lined up for an onside kick. They got the touchback which prevented any extra seconds from ticking off. And then they were able to call all three timeouts on defense before the two minute warning, giving them a chance even if the Pats had punted it away.

On the other side, the Pats were pathetic in managing the clock. They burned two timeouts on their four-and-out possession, one of those came before the first down play after the kick off. At the time it didn't seem like it mattered. It was almost like Al Michaels had a sixth sense when he mentioned how this could really hurt the Pats. How right he was. Wasting those timeouts eventually prevented the Pats from challenging the 4th-and-2 play. And they couldn't stop the clock when the Colts were about to score. This gave Brady no time to try and mount a final drive of his own. In a game where both teams were pretty much dead even on offense, defense and special teams, it was clock management that proved to be the difference.

This heartbreaking loss cost the Pats any chance at home field advantage in the playoffs. The already-infamous 4th-and-2 play has already been talked about and shown more than Brett Favre's miracle TD pass over the Niners and is the most talked about play since Santonio Holmes' game-winning TD catch in last year's Super Bowl. The criticism of Belichick is ringing out everywhere. But Bill is so oblivious to the fans, media and anything that isn't between the front and back cover of his playbook that I don't think it'll affect him one bit. And I bet you if given the chance, he'd make that same wrong decision again.

That Wasn't How It Was Supposed To Go!

2009-11-11T18:24:00.001-05:00

Do or die week pretty much ended in death for me. The 49ers blew a game against the Titans at home, putting their playoff hopes in serous jeopardy. The Titans had just picked up their first win the previous week, there's no explanation for losing to that team at home. Alex Smith threw two costly picks at the end of the game that led to Titan TDs. Everyone keeps saying that Mike Singletary made the right decision by going with Alex Smith over Shaun Hill at quarterback but I'm not convinced. They say he has a stronger arm and he's more mobile. Ok, he has thrown more TDs in two and a half games than Hill did in five and a half. But all I see is one important number...a big goose egg in the W column.

For all of Hill's deficiencies, he has done one thing in this league and that is win games. Hill was 3-3 as a starter this season, but I wouldn't blame him for the Atlanta loss where the defense just didn't show up ready to play. And in Houston, I realize that Hill didn't have a good first half but he still hadn't thrown any picks. The decision to bring in Smith looked like a great one when he came in and threw three second half TDs but people forgot that it was Smith who threw a costly interception on the Niners' last drive in that game that ended it. Smith keeps making costly mistakes at key points in games. The mistakes that Hill didn't make (Smith has more INTs than Hill this season). I'm not saying that Smith needs to go back to the bench just yet. I just think people should look at other things besides touchdowns and yards when comparing these two. As a QB you need to win games to be successful.

And that ESPN Page 2 writer Gregg Easterbrook is a complete idiot for suggesting that Michael Crabtree is the reason why the Niners are on this losing streak (this article was on ESPN's front page yesterday http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/091110&sportCat=nfl). Crabtree has already become the number one receiver in this offense and has finally given us a weapon to go to on the outside. And he hasn't said one word. I'm sorry Easterbrook but you don't know what the hell you're talking about.

Well my fantasy team lost as well, dropping me to 5-4 for the season and all but eliminating me from the running for the regular season or total points title. I had a pretty good week with Michael Turner and Tom Brady putting up pretty good numbers for me. But Roddy White did very little because of the Falcons big lead and Kevin Smith's injury kept him from getting enough touches to produce.

I did OK with my picks this week going 3-2...my first week with a winning record in quite some time. I made a nice call on the Cardinals over Bears upset. But it looks like I'm completely wrong about the NFC East, the Giants don't seems to be getting out of the rut they're in and the Cowboys aren't pulling their annual choke job...at least not yet. I'll say I got 1.5 of my 5 fantasy studs right (Ryan Grant, Matt Ryan). I'm still shocked that Green Bay's defense gave up 38 points and lost to the Bucs. I ended up doing better with my fantasy dud predictions getting 3 out of 5 right. Tony Romo took care of the ball much better than expected against the Eagles. And I was right that Hines Ward and Mike Wallace would have better fantasy days than Santonio Holmes, but Holmes still ended up with 93 yds (no TDs) so I can't say he was a dud.

Now for my High Five/Low Five

Best Teams
1. Indianapolis Colts- I don't care that they don't score as many points or beat their opponents by as much as the Saints. The Colts play defense and play it very well. They have allowed the least points per game in the league and have done it without their defensive MVP Bob Sanders who's now done for the year. What's new right? The past two games their offense hasn't been clicking the way it usually does, especially in the red zone. But the defense has come to the rescue both times. The defense can really prove something to the world if it shuts down Tom Brady & Co. this week.

2. New Orleans Saints- For the second time in three weeks the Saints overcome an early double-digit lead to win. The defense came up with another touchdown, their seventh of the season. That is more than the Raiders entire team has for the season and it's tied with the Browns! The one worry on this team has to be the rushing defense. They've allowed Michael Turner and Deangelo Williams to go off in consecutive weeks.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers- Up until the this week, no one has been talking about the defending champs. Their defense has been playing superbly, coming up with another TD against Denver and holding them to just 27 yards on the ground and forcing Kyle Orton to throw three picks (he had only thrown one all season and that was on a hail mary). The offense seems to clicking on both sides too. With their quality wins over Denver and Minnesota, I believe they are the third best team in the league and will be a force in the playoffs.

4. Minnesota Vikings- Since they lost to Pittsburgh I had to put them lower than the Steelers. But they very well could get their rematch with the Steelers in the Super Bowl. With all the flip-flopping in the NFC East it is definitely shaping up to at least look like a Vikings-Saints NFC Championship game.

5. New England Patriots- The Pats have taken advantage of a very favorable schedule over the past few weeks and the Tom Brady-isn't-the-same talks have been silenced. And after last week, the Where's Randy Moss? talks should be quieted as well. But let's see how good this team is this week when they travel to Indianapolis to face their old rivals. The Pats have a chance to eliminate both of the remaining unbeatens with the Saints looming on the schedule in a couple weeks.

You may be wondering where the Bengals are on this list. I don't agree with their #4 ranking on ESPN's Power Rankings. I feel like they've caught a lot of lucky breaks in their wins, especially their first win over the Ravens. We'll see how they fare in Steeler Town. A win there will change my mind.

Five Worst Teams
1. Cleveland Browns- Their one win was a 6-3 triumph over Buffalo. I'm being extremely sarcastic with the word triumph. It really shouldn't be counted as a win if you don't score an offensive TD. In my book the Browns still are winless. This team is a complete embarrassment. ESPN should've tried to get a flex schedule for Monday Night Football so it could avoid showing what will be one of the worst debacles caught on TV when the Browns play the Ravens.

2. Detroit Lions- After the first few weeks of the season I thought the Lions were a decent football team. Of course they always find a way to underachieve. Losing to the Rams at home is awful and almost placed them as my worst team in the NFL. Congrats Lions, you're only the second worst team in the league.

3. St. Louis Rams- Sunday's game against the Saints should be funnier than any South Park episode. Bet on the Saints now...the line is only 14. New Orleans should win by 50.

4. Tampa Bay- The Bucs have the best win of this bunch, a 10-point victory over the Packers. Maybe this kid, Josh Freeman is the franchise quarterback they've been looking for since...oh wait a minute the Bucs have never had a franchise QB. No, Brad Johnson doesn't count. Well at least they had hall-of-famer Steve Young as their QB for a brief time. Very brief.

5. Washington Redskins- I really don't see the Skins winning another game for the rest of the season. The only winnable one is at Oakland, but that's not easy considering Philly lost there. So the standard is set...you gotta be 2-14 or worse to get the first pick in next year's draft. I'm sure at least one of these team will do worse.

Five Worst NFL Broadcasters Currently on TV

Currently is the key word here because there are plenty more I'd like to add to the list including Emmitt Smith and Bryant Gumbel who were wisely let go.

1. Cris Collinsworth- To me it really doesn't matter if Collinsworth says anything intelligent or not. His voice is too annoying to listen to. And he laughs at his own corny sarcastic jokes. The world is really missing John Madden right now.

2. Keith Olbermann- I can't stand listening to him do highlights on NBC. His jokes are over everyone's head and the one's I do get aren't funny. And all he does is continue to make these jokes that get an uncomfortable silence from the other anchors who don't know how to react.

3. Tony Dungy- Stuttering Stanley!...Stuttering Stanley! It's hard to believe that this guy led a football team to a championship. He's so unauthoritative and can go through one sentence without stumbling. He looks uncomfortable and frightened on camera. What makes it worse is that Dungy, Olbermann and Collinsworth are all on NBC's coverage of Sunday Night Football. What a horrible combination.

4. Dan Dierdorf- Mr. Obvious has nothing intriguing to say and he doesn't belong on CBS's number two broadcast team.

5. Tony Siragusa- I'm not a big fan of how Fox uses the Goose on their broadcasts. They basically have him as a second color commentator and he'll talk during the play sometimes. Then they'll show him watching a monitor thats on the sideline instead of watching the action on the field when it's right in front of him. And I think he talks about food more than football when he's on the air.

MVP Candidates
1. Drew Brees- Brees continues to lead this offense of nobodies to success. Seriously, besides Reggie Bush, who isn't even one of the top options in this offense who highly touted coming out of college? Marques Colston...7th round draft pick, Devery Henderson...2nd round pick who did nothing before Brees came, Lance Moore...undrafted free agent. Brees has made these guys into great receivers and that's why he's the MVP of the league right now.

2. Peyton Manning- Brees and Manning really are 1A and 1B for MVP and may end up getting a split for the award. I give Brees the edge just because of Manning's performance the past couple weeks. He's only thrown one touchdown against two average defenses. And he has Dallas Clark, the best tight end in the league this year, and Reggie Wayne, probably the best receiver in the NFL this year.

3. Ben Roethlisberger- My top three MVP candidates come from the three best teams on my power rankings. Big Ben is probably the best QB in the league outside of the pocket. His ability to extend plays has won them games this season. With an on-off running game it's Roethlisberger the former game manager who will lead this team to another division title.

4. Cedric Benson- He continues to carry the Bengals on his shoulders game after game. He averages almost 25 carries/game. That's the definition of being a workhorse.

5. Brett Favre- This team is practically the same from last year with the exception of Favre and the improvements on offense are immense. Similar to Brees, Favre has made a mediocre-at-best receiving corps look great. We haven't seen him make those patented gunslinger errors of the past either. But it's almost impossible to think he can be MVP with the best rusher in the game behind him and Manning and Brees having the great seasons they're having.

Best Players on Bad Teams

1. Maurice Jones-Drew- There is no player more important to their team's offense than Jones-Drew. He is so dynamic both running the ball and receiving out of the backfield. And for some reason the Jaguars still don't realize the importance of getting him enough touches.

2. Chris Johnson- CJ might be the fastest player in the league. The Titans aren't playing better because Vince Young is in the game...they are playing better because they are finally getting him the ball. He's averaging 6.7 yds/carry and has the most 40+ yard runs in the league. There is no stopping this guy.

3. Steven Jackson- I love the way he runs with his bruising style. He craves contact and injects fear into opposing linebackers even though his team doesn't inject fear into anybody.

4. DeAngelo Williams- Williams has really picked it up in recent weeks...rushing for 548 of his 768 yards in the past four weeks. He almost single-handedly gave the Panthers and upset over the Saints last week.

5. Calvin Johnson- I know he's barely seen the field this year and hasn't done much when he is in. But this guy is the most athletic receiver in the league and if he ever gets out of Detroit, he'll be the best in the league.

Check out the Gridiron Guru later on this week for Week 10 predictions.

Do or Die Week

2009-11-06T15:52:00.000-05:00

So this week is do or die for me for many reasons. Number one, the 49ers face a must-win game at home against Tennessee. In their three consecutive losses the Niners have fought valiantly (at least in the last two) and fell just short. But there are no moral victories and close losses don't count for anything but an L. So the Niners need to prove they can pull out tough games. San Fran really should dominate in this game but the Titans have Vince Young and just picked up their first win so I'm not sure what to expect from them. I'll take a W anyway they can get it.

Next, it's do-or-die for me in fantasy. I'm 5-3 and facing the 2nd place team in the league. I should be able to make it to the six-team playoff but for me to have any realistic shot of winning the regular season title I need to win this one. Speaking of fantasy, you've gotta check out the new show on FX, The League. It's hilarious. You want to talk about guys that take fantasy football to the extreme. The show is about a group of friends with differing family situations, who are in a fantasy league together and use it as leverage in certain situations among each other. In one instance, two of the guys, who are lawyers, are in a prison cell with a man accused of robbing three liquor stores. One is trying to prosecute the man and the other is trying to defend him. The prosecution lawyer says he going to go for the maximum sentence of 10 years. They end up making a deal to drop it to five years if they switch first round draft picks in their fantasy league, giving the prosecution lawyer the first overall pick which would be access to Adrian Peterson. If you love sports, sexual jokes and debuachery this show is right up your alley.

Well finally it's do or die for me if I want to be considered the Gridiron Guru anymore. The past few weeks have been awful so it's time to step it up. So here are my predictions for Week 9:

Eagles over Cowboys
If you checked out my last blog post you already know that I like Philly in this one. There's no reason not to. The Eagles are at home. Their offense looks better than ever. Dallas has the 22nd ranked pass defense. Dallas has received too much media attention meaning too much pressure on the team.Philly leads the NFL in turnover margin and we know how Romo doesn't take very good care of the ball. And last but certainly not least, the Eagles know that all the attention is on them now that the Phillies have lost the world series, and they need to prevent this town from exploding.

Colts over Texans
This is the most important game in Texans' franchise history. Pretty sad to say that when it's only Week 9. I've seen people pick the Texans in this one but I'm not buying it. Peyton Manning probably treated this week's practices as if the Colts were coming off a loss. Manning didn't throw a TD last week against the 49ers and the team didn't even score one until the 4th quarter off a halfback pass from Joseph Addai. I think the Colts offense is a little upset and I don't see the Texans defense being able to stop Reggie Wayne (who can) or Dallas Clark right now.

Steelers over Broncos
I've learned this year how important a bye week is for a team and how tough it is beat a team coming off one. Pittsburgh will have had 15 days off to rest up for this game. I think Baltimore exposed some weaknesses in this Bronco team. They showed that if you can stuff the run against Denver that Kyle Orton will sometimes struggle to beat a team by himself. And a quarterback that can avoid sacks and extend the play can beat this Denver D. That's what Joe Flacco did, and it's what Ben Roethlisberger is known for. The Steelers are playing the best they've played all year right now and they haven't hit their peak yet so look out for them.

I really hope that Steelers safety Ryan Clark makes the right decision and sits out this game in Mile High. Clark has sickle cell trait and the thin air of Denver prevented oxygen from getting to his spleen the last time he played in Denver which forced him to have his spleen removed. Playing in this game is life-threatening for Clark even though he's been medically cleared to play. There's no reason to risk your life for football, especially in the regular season. Just watch the game and support your team Ryan, you'll get your chance next week.

Giants over Chargers
I don't expect this Giants slump to last any longer. It's a long road trip for San Diego and west coast teams usually struggle in cold games in the eastern time zone. My advice for the Giants: run the ball! You're facing a 27th-ranked Chargers run defense and have a hungry Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. Run the ball down their throats and take some pressure off of Eli. If his foot is bothering him this will lighten the load and he can rest up on the bye next week.

Cardinals over Bears
The Cards are a difficult team to figure out right now. They win on one of those long west-to-east coast trips in New York and then forget to show up at home against Carolina. I'm going to take the minor upset here because I think the Cards defense will force Jay Cutler into some turnovers. Although the Cards have a -6 give/take ratio they have plenty of potential to force turnovers, as they did so effectively in the playoffs last season. I kinda hope I'm wrong on this one because I want the Niners to be in first. Keep an eye on Anquan Boldin who is a game-time decision for the Cards.

Fantasy Studs and Duds
Studs
Ryan Grant RB GB- Grant has struggled in this pass happy offense this season. But similar to a couple weeks ago in Cleveland, I expect the Packers to get a lead and go to the run if for no other reason then to keep Aaron Rodgers from being hit. I'm sure he's sore from last week and happy he doesn't have to see Jared Allen anymore in the regular season. I also like Rodgers to find Grant who's an underrated pass catcher, for a few completions.

Packers Defense- On the other side of this matchup you have QB Josh Freeman making his first NFL start for the Bucs. I'm sure the Packers are salivating at this opportunity. The Bucs have no dangerous weapons on offense so I think Green Bay will bring the kitchen sink at Freeman. It's very likely the Packers' defense will get a TD in this one.

Brandon Jacobs RB NYG- I've already noted how important it is for the Giants to run the ball against the Chargers. I like Jacobs to get his first 100-yard game on Sunday. Without Jamal Williams this Chargers run D is way too soft and Jacobs will take advantage of it

John Carlson TE SEA- After my fantasy draft this year I thought I was stacked at tight end with Carlson and Kellen Winslow. Turns out that the tight end position has killed me each and every week. I don't get it. Carlson has a great a rookie campaign and started out the season with a huge game against St. Louis (of course I started Winslow that week). If he doesn't take advantage of a great matchup with Detroit, then I'm giving up on him.

Matt Ryan QB ATL- After a season and a half in the young Ryan's career this is the first time he's lost two consecutive games. The Georgia Dome will be a welcoming site and a matchup against the Skins is even more welcoming. The Skins' D isn't a push over but I still think Ryan will have a very good game. Just get the ball to Roddy White as much as possible and let the man make plays. I'm sure seeing Michael Turner go off for 150 yards last week helps Ryan's confidence as well.

Duds
Tony Romo QB DAL- The ball-hawking Eagles defense stands in the way of Romo and I'm expecting Romo to make a mistake. Then the raucous Philly crowd gets in Romo's head...another mistake. All of a sudden we have deja vu of last year's debacle on the season finale in Philly.

Knowshon Moreno RB DEN- One thing that's consistent with Pittsburgh is that they always defend the run well. I don't see this rookie blowing up on such a disciplined defense. This will be a game where the quarterbacks have to make plays to get a win. And it's usually Correll Buckhalter who gets the catches out of the backfield.

Santonio Holmes WR PIT- Holmes has had a disappointing season since Week 1 and now he going to draw a good amount of coverage from Champ Bailey. I think Big Ben may look to Hines Ward and Mike Wallace, who's done a great job this year, more often than Holmes.

LaDainian Tomlinson RB SD- LT owners, please don't get all excited because he scored twice last week. He still only averaged 3 yards per carry in that game and hasn't gained over 71 yards in any game this year. I wouldn't start him against the Giants D this week.

Beanie Wells RB ARI- If the Cards are going beat the Bears like I predicted it'll be through the air. This passing offense looked poor last week and Warner wants to get all six of last week's turnovers out of his head. I don't see Beanie getting more than 12-15 touches against a Bears D that is good against the run.

OK its time to do, not die!

Who Will be the Beast of the East?

2009-11-05T23:54:00.000-05:00

Hey all, I know it's been awhile since my last post but I've been under the weather and haven't felt up to writing anything. But I do want to invite you all to check out my friend Steve Pugh's website compughterratings.com where I am also currently posting blog entries covering major issues in the NFL. To go directly to my blog go to compughterratingsnfl.blogspot.com. I'll give you guys a sneak peak with my most recent post.

Well I think Brett Favre answered any critics and doubters (including me) after his four touchdown, no interception performance in Lambeau. Not only did he get his redemption, he has all but secured an NFC North title, given the Vikings a good chance for home field advantage and is one of the top MVP candidates. But the Packers fans still should be able to see that the organization made the right decision with Aaron Rodgers who had a great game and leads the NFL in passer rating. The only worry is whether he'll be able to stand on his own two feet after this season with all the hits he's taken.

But let's move on and talk about the NFC East

Just three weeks ago it looked as if we wouldn't have any question as to who would win this division. The 5-0 Giants didn't just look like the best team in the division...they appeared to be the class of the league. The Eagles were 3-1 at this point but hadn't beat anyone. The Cowboys were in crisis mode after losing in Denver and barely escaping Kansas City. But this is the NFL you know and NFL stands for Not For Long.

After three consecutive losses, it's the Giants who are now in crisis mode. In the three losses, the Giants have been outscored 112-61, with their secondary being absolutely torched. The once flawless Eli has thrown 6 INTs over this span and has many questioning whether the planter fasciitis in his foot is affecting his play. After an alarming loss to Oakland, the Eagles have rebounded with two good wins, including the 40-17 trouncing of the G-men last week. Donovan McNabb finally has the weaponry around him to dominate opposing defenses and DeSean Jackson is maybe the most dangerous player in the NFL. And now Tony Romo and the Cowboys are beginning to roll with their third consecutive win to tie Philly for the division lead as the two get ready to face each other Sunday night. The Giants...well they are in third place now and have a tough upcoming matchup with the Chargers. How quickly things have changed.

So things should be very interesting in the division that has been the most competitive in football over the past few years. Of course everyone wants to grill the Giants right now. In a "what have you done for me lately" league, three straight losses results in immense criticism and panic among the team's fans. But I'm not writing off the Giants just yet. Yes they have played poorly on both sides of the ball the past few weeks. They've given up too many big plays and don't seem to be getting as much pressure from their front four as they used to. But the injuries of Aaron Ross and Michael Boley have really handcuffed the Giants. The loss of Ross has especially hurt against three of the best passing teams in the league (New Orleans, Arizona, Philadelphia). But Boley should be back this week and Ross after next week's bye so the defense should be close to full strength.

As far as the offensive side is concerned, Eli always has these stretches of games where he's turnover-prone. I don't believe it's because of his foot injury. The Giants have fallen way behind early in two of the past three games (Philly, New Orleans), forcing the Giants to abandon the run. Not to mention the fact that in these two games, Eli had to deal with very smart, ball-hawking defenses as well as hostile crowds. I'm not trying to make excuses for Eli. He usually does well in these situations, But when things start going against him, they sometimes have a snowball effect and make him look really bad in certain games. I expect him to rebound at home against the Chargers and the Giants will still make the playoffs.

I really like the way the Eagles are playing right now and think they'll continue their success on offense. It's such a weapon when a team has the ability to score from anywhere on the field like the Eagles can. Jackson and rookie Jeremy Maclin are probably the most explosive duo of wideouts in the league. My only concern is that Andy Reid will be too pass happy (as he always is) and when he faces strong secondaries he'll stray away from the run too much. If this happens, those big plays could turn into turnovers. The Eagles need to prove that they can run the ball and not be so reliant on big plays to win games. Running the ball is the best way to protect leads anyway. But I like this Eagles team which has a great defense and special teams as well. They have a very good mix of experience and youth. I think it's between them and the Giants for the division title.

Then there's the Cowboys, who have flown under the radar the past couple weeks with impressive wins over the Falcons and Seahawks. All of a sudden the spotlight is back on them as they fight for the division lead with the Eagles this week. And there's even more media attention to America's team after Roy Williams makes some bone-headed comments about how the passes intended for him are always off target. He's just jealous of Miles Austin's success and realizes he isn't the #1 receiver anymore. But we know how Dallas usually does when they get the world's attention...they fold. I think it starts in Philly this week. Dallas is a team that is susceptible to the big play. I think down the stretch of this season, the team's lack of discipline and poor coaching will cost them a shot at winning the East. But I won't count them out of a wildcard spot. The NFC East has put three teams in the playoffs two of the past three years. The two other teams with the best chance at a wildcard spot are Atlanta and Green Bay. But Dallas has already beat Atlanta and has a matchup with Green Bay next week in Lambeau. If they win that one they'd have the tiebreaker over the two and a good shot at stealing a wildcard spot.

It should be a showdown between the Giants and Eagles in this division race. Both have played all their easy games early on and have extremely tough remaining schedules. I like the Giants to squeak it out for a few reasons. I think they will get revenge at home over Philly in Week 14 when their defense will be healthier. With Dallas coming to the Meadowlands and a road game against the pathetic Skins, the Giants should sweep the remainder of their divisional schedule. And I think the Giants' ability to run the ball (if they stick with it) will give them the edge over Philly.

So despite what you've seen in recent weeks, don't count the Giants out. You know what NFL stands for.

Week 7 Wrap Up

2009-10-28T04:09:00.000-04:00

This week marks an all-time low for me in my ability to predict what will happen in the NFL. If you look at my last blog post, it actually looks like I was trying to be as wrong as possible...like I could see the future and purposefully go against it. I was 2-3 with my picks...getting the Saints and Steelers right...just barely. And I don't think I was the only one who thought the Giants would beat the Cardinals at home. But predicting that the Bears would beat the Bengals and the Raiders would upset the Jets was just awful. Both the Bengals and Jets had something to prove and took it to their opponents.

My fantasy predictions looked pretty awful as well. Owen Daniels and Cedric Benson...guys I said would have tough games, came up with career performances. Giants WRs didn't perform as I expected against the Cardinals D and Heath Miller did very little for the Steelers. I'll say that I got 3 out of 5 studs right (Addai and Maroney, Giants WRs ended up with almost 200 yds and a TD) and 2 out of 5 duds right (Cadillac Williams and Saints RBs because no particular RB had a standout game which is what I was saying about their RB corps). What made the weekend even worse was the fact the 49ers lost a close one to the Texans, the Terps football team hit an all-time low with a loss to Duke and the damn Yankees are in the World Series.Ughhhh!!!

Let's take a look at the top stories from Week 7:

Brett Favre and the Vikings come back to Earth while the Steelers look to be back in form. The Vikings had escaped with too many victories that they probably didn't deserve and almost got away with another one in Pittsburgh. But it was about time someone took away their luck. The Vikings got away from their style of football, throwing it 51 times and not letting the best running back in the league do his thing. You usually don't win like that, especially against the Steelers. Somehow the defending champs have been extremely quiet in winning four straight, being overshadowed by the Saints, Colts and Broncos. On Sunday they played "Steeler football", scoring two defensive TDs and only committing one turnover (as opposed to four last week) But as Mike Tomlin said, there's plenty more this team can do to improve.

There's no deficit too big for the Saints. Almost any other team would be SOL if they fall behind 24-3 in a game. Not the Saints. Drew Brees didn't have his best game, but when it mattered he came up big, with two rushing TDs and a passing TD. You know the Dolphins didn't want to get in a shootout with the Saints, but there was nothing they could do to prevent it. The Saints put up 36 second half points including two more defensive TDs. The game ball should go to Sean Payton for not allowing this team to quit and making the halftime adjustment necessary to come back. That's what coaching is all about.

Don't count Dallas out just yet. Coming into Sunday's matchup with Atlanta, Dallas' three wins came against teams with a grand total of three wins. They were in dire need of a quality win and got it against the Falcons. It was a great all-around performance for the Cowboys, who put the clamps on a very good offense. They created havoc in the backfield for Matt Ryan sacking him four times. The offense was clicking with Tony Romo passing for 311 and 3 TDs and Miles Austin having another huge game. And the special teams came through as well, with Patrick Crayton returning a punt for a TD. You won't find many wins more complete than this one.

Look out for Arizona everyone. Many people wrote off the Cardinals in the offseason, saying that there was no way Kurt Warner could stay healthy and that the defense was still too weak. After the first few games this looked to be the case but they've turned it around with impressive wins in back-to-back games against the Seahawks and Giants. Warner is spreading the ball around to all three of his big receivers and there might be a new found running attack with Beanie Wells. The defense made Eli look like the Eli of old with three interceptions. I don't like this but Arizona seems to have taken back control of the NFC West

Now here's my high five/low five after Week 7:

Top MVP Candidates
1. Peyton Manning- Did you see his TD pass to Dallas Clark in between two defenders? That was absolutely insane! He might be the next George Blanda and play until he's 50. He looks to be getting better with age.

2. Drew Brees- Even though Brees had an off game, I think he boosted his MVP chances because of the way he bounced back. Leading a team back from a 21 point deficit on the road may only happen once in a guy's career. Brees made it look routine and even showed us a new facet of his game with two rushing TDs

3. Ben Roethlisberger- Big Ben is 2nd in passing yards, has 13 total TDs and is the focal point of an offense that has struggled with the run this year. When are people going to start giving him credit for being a great QB?

4. Darren Sharper- Shaper has 6 INTs, 3 of them going back for TDs. To put that in comparison...those are the same exact numbers Deion Sanders had in the best season of his career with the 1994 49ers. Deion won the Defensive Player of the Year Award that year. Sharper has those same numbers in just six games!

5. Cedric Benson- Benson got his revenge against the Bears on Sunday and now leads the league with 720 rushing yards. With Matt Forte's sophomore slump you got to think that the Bears' management wished they could go back in time and change their decision to get rid of him

Top Coaching Performances This Season

1. Josh McDaniels- The obvious favorite for coach of the year at this point, Josh McDaniels looks like a genius for taking a team in disarray and making them one of the last three undefeated teams. Give him credit for straightening out Brandon Marshall and implementing the right personnel and play calling for Kyle Orton to succeed.

2. Sean Payton- I love this guy. He's a players' coach who knows when to be hard on his guys. In the last two weeks we've seen him win games in two different ways. Against the Giants he outcoached Tom Coughlin and had a terrific game plan to attack the Giants secondary with quick passes. Against the Dolphins he found his team behind and had to make adjustments...something that separates the good coaches from the bad ones.

3. Jim Caldwell- Many called for an adjustment period for the Colts' offense with the arrival of Caldwell. Well that must've been the preseason because the Colts have been flawless so far in the regular season. Then again we all know that Peyton Manning is the real coach of that team.

4. Marvin Lewis- While on the hot seat, Lewis has been at his best. He's already beaten the Steelers and Ravens and rallied his team after a loss to crush the Bears. Things are looking up in Cincy for a change.

5. Mike Singletary- Singletary has dropped a little bit on this list for now after the Niners dropped two straight but he still deserves to be in the top 5. This past week he showed great instincts again, deciding to put in Alex Smith to spark the offense. Smith ends up throwing three TDs in the second half and came up just short of a great comeback. I don't think I would've pulled Shaun Hill in that situation and I'm not sure if he even deserved it. But it worked out against Houston, showing that Singletary has a sixth sense and isn't afraid to make important decisions on the spot. Look for him to move back up on this list as the season goes on.

Week 7 Most Surprising Performances
1. Alex Smith- I've been waiting to see Smith do anything worthy of his huge contract and 1st overall pick in the draft and finally got something. He looked surprisingly poised in a tough situation facing a large deficit...then again he had nothing to lose. But I didn't expect to even see him in the game let alone throw 3 TDs.

2. Miles Austin- After two consecutive monster games, it won't be a surprise the next time he puts up big numbers. All of a sudden Austin is Romo's boy even over Jason Witten. Jerry Jones should force Austin and Roy Williams to switch contracts or cut Williams the way these two have played.

3. Michael Crabtree- In his career debut after missing all of training camp and preseason, and getting minimal time to learn the offense, Crabtree looked like a veteran. He caught five passes for 55 yards and should be Alex Smith's number two target after Vernon Davis. Maybe it was worth the wait.

4. Beanie Wells- Maybe it wasn't that surprising that Beanie had a good game, people have been calling for him to break out for awhile. But against the Giants, you'd figure he'd be a non-factor. Not the case. He provided a much-needed boost to the running game with 4.8 yds/carry and a TD. There should be no question who's the starting RB next week for Arizona.

5. Packers Offensive Line- They didn't allow a sack. No way! At least Rodgers gets a one-week break before the flying mullet (Jared Allen) is back on top of him.

Top 5 Clowns of the week
1. Sonny Jurgensen, Sam Huff, and the Redskins radio crew- Listen to what these guys said on the air Monday night during the Skins-Eagles game. It's not exact but close enough.

Larry Michael: "It looks like the Eagles are going to line up in the wildcat"
Sam Huff: "They have five guys that can take snaps in the wildcat"
Sonny Jurgensen: "It's not the wildcat unless the dogfighter (Mike Vick) is in"

How are you allowed to say crap like that on the air?! This isn't a one-time thing either. These guys are absolutely horrible. They say "we" on the air, which is unacceptable, I don't care if you played for them or not. Huff and Jurgensen will interrupt Larry Michael during his play-by-play. They are senile idiots who forget the names of the most obvious people on the field. Then they'll talk about their playing days, as if anyone cares. They can't keep up with a game that has changed drastically since they played some 50 years ago. Sam, Sonny go back to your rocking chairs and watch the games from your homes. You guys are pathetic.

2. Larry Johnson- You can't make homophobic comments and you can't directly insult your coach. LJ did both and may have just seen his last day playing for the Chiefs. He's a head case that has no place on any NFL franchise right now

3. William Gay- I'm sure you all saw Gay get pummeled by Adrian Peterson on Sunday. But if you missed I'll show you again. Look below.

I haven't seen a defensive player get humiliated like that since Brandon Jacobs trucked Laron Landry on opening night last year.

4. Jamarcus Russell- Can you believe he had the nerve to say the offense's lack of success isn't his problem, it's his teammates. I don't care if you're Peyton Manning and your teammates let you down, there's no way you go to the media and blame everyone else. On top of saying that, it is Russell's fault anyway. He continuously misses open receivers and makes poor decisions and still doesn't know the offense. What a clown.

5. Richard Seymour- Seymour laughably said the Raiders were bound for the playoffs last week after the Raiders' win over Philly. Then they get destroyed at home by the Jets this past week. The Raiders aren't going anywhere. I know he's used to making the playoffs while playing with the Pats but he needs to remember he's in Oakland now.

Week 7 Fantasy and Game Predictions

2009-10-24T22:12:00.000-04:00

Ok I coming back off a couple bad weeks of picks and it's time to turn things around. I'm not gonna put it as one of my picks but expect the 49ers to turn it around this week as well. I'm sure it wasn't a fun bye week for Singletary's boys. Here are my picks for Week 7:

Steelers over Vikings
The difference between these two teams so far has been the way they've been able to close out games. The Vikings have made big plays at the end of games to pull out a couple tough wins against the Niners and Ravens. The Steelers have had a couple of fourth quarter collapses to lose games. You can't expect the resilient Steelers to continue this trend. I like them at home against a Minnesota team that is coming off a long, tiring win over Baltimore. The Vikings have given up some big plays as of late so I like Roethlisberger (league leader in passing yards in case you didn't know) to find Ward and Holmes often. And you gotta think it's about time for Brett Favre to have a down game.

Giants over Cardinals
You know that Eli Manning is pissed about his sub-par homecoming performance in New Orleans last week. I think he'll take out his frustration against the 31st ranked pass defense in the league. If the Giants' front four gets pressure on Warner, it could be a long day for the most immobile QB in the league. I think the Giants win big at home.

Falcons over Cowboys
Yes, the Cowboys have had a bye to regroup after an ugly win in KC. Yes, Tony Romo may have found something with Miles Austin. Yes, they are at home. But Dallas gives up too many big plays. I like Matt Ryan to find my boy Roddy White (I own him both of my fantasy leagues) for at least one long TD. I think Atlanta is the most underrated and least talked about team in the league. They are only one game behind the surging Saints who are stealing all the headlines. That signature win that Dallas is looking for will have to wait.

Bears over Bengals
This is an important game for teams in very competitive divisions. All season I've felt that the Bengals were overachieving, pulling out all their wins in the closing minutes. Last week showed it...losing to the Texans at home. The Bengals are too reliant on the run game and are going to wear out Cedric Benson if they keep giving him 30 handoffs a game. The Bears rank 6th against the run, allowing just 89 yds/game. I know Carson Palmer has made some big plays this season but I don't think he has enough weapons to be able to do it for an entire game against this Bears D. I like the Bears as long as Cutler doesn't choke it off.

Upset Special
Raiders over Jets
The Raiders shocked the world last week with their win over the Eagles. Their defense dictated the game and gave McNabb and Andy Reid fits. The Jets are really reeling right now, losing three straight. Mark Sanchez isn't the golden boy anymore, especially after single-handedly giving the Bills game away with 5 picks. He won't have Jerricho Cotchery for this one and Braylon Edwards is banged up as well. Not to mention Edwards has to face Nnamdi Asomugha this week. Oakland has played much better at home than on the road this year and the Jets have historically played badly on west coast trips. I like the Raiders to win in low scoring fashion and expects plenty of Sanchez criticism from the New York media next week.

Fantasy Studs
1. Laurence Maroney RB NE

I'm expecting the Pats to be close to as dominant against the Bucs as they were last week against the lowly Titans. This means the Pats will have a big lead early and can settle with running the ball. The biggest obstacle for Maroney will be Belichick. We all know how Belichick loves to run up the score and have Brady throw bombs to Moss when they're up by 40. That's the only way I see Maroney not putting up numbers.

2. Joseph Addai RB IND

Addai's situation is similar to that of Maroney's: pathetic opponent, will get big lead early, lots of touches late.

3. Dwayne Bowe WR KC

Last week we saw Matt Cassel and Bowe start clicking. I like to see more of the same from him against the Chargers pass defense. I think Bowe's size can handle the physical play of San Diego's Antonio Cromartie and allow him to make some plays.

4. Giants entire receiving corps
Like I said Eli is mad. That used to mean nothing...but now it means everything. And lately Eli has been spreading the ball around a lot more. Steve Smith will get his catches but he's not being targeted on half the plays anymore. I like Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks to have good games as well. Nicks is going to be the #1 receiver sometime next year. Unless you're stacked at WR, I start any of those three tomorrow.

5. Heath Miller TE PIT

Miller is quietly having a very good year for Pittsburgh with four TD is his last three games. He has at least five catches in every game except for one (he had 3 against the Bears). Minnesota gives up a lot of fantasy points to tight ends. Look for Miller to be on of Roethlisberger's favorite targets.

Fantasy Duds
1. Cedric Benson RB CIN

I know this is sort of a revenge game for Benson against his former team but Benson has no control over whether he has holes to run through or not. Without Urlacher, this Bears defense has continued to be great against the run. I think they will make it their top priority to stop Benson this week.

2. Saints RB's
Don't get me wrong, I don't think there's anything wrong with the Saints' running game. But they have a three headed monster now with Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and Reggie Bush (Bush is a tiny head). I don't see any of them getting enough touches against a very good Dolphins run defense (3rd in NFL). Brees will burn the Fins in the passing game which will be enough for New Orleans

3. Owen Daniels TE HOU

The 49ers are allowing the third least amount of fantasy points to opposing tight ends according to default ESPN scoring. Patrick Willis has been a big reason why. Quarterbacks are afraid to throw it his way because he is a turnover-forcing machine. I know most of you will start Daniels, but if you have a decent 2nd option I'd reconsider.

4. Steve Smith WR CAR
Opposing defenses have finally figured out that if you take out Smith you pretty much take out Carolina's passing game. The result has been an uncountable amount of Jake Delhomme INTs and a very disgruntled Smith. The Bills have a very good secondary (4th least amount of passing yds given up in NFL) and will focus on shutting down Smith just like the rest of the league already has. Plus, the Panthers are going to run the ball all day against the Bills poor run defense anyway.

5. Cadillac Williams RB TB
The Caddy's engine will be shut off after the first quarter because running will no longer be an option for the Bucs. Bench him now.

The Scum Smells Better Everywhere but in Washington

2009-10-20T01:46:00.000-04:00

Hey Guys, I know it's been awhile since I last made a post but I've been super busy. I am now blogging for a new website and I urge you all to check it out: http://compughterratingsnfl.blogspot.com/. I know I didn't make any predictions for this past Sunday's games but I don't think you would've wanted to see them anyway after another chaotic week in the NFL. Yesterday was a tough day for me...not only was I deprived of seeing the 49ers play but both of my fantasy teams lost and my picks stunk more than Albert Haynesworth's jock strap. Yea, imagine that. I somehow found a way to lose in both my fantasy leagues despite having Brady on one team and Brees on the other. You're probably wondering how that's possible. Well in one league I had five players, Santana Moss, Kellen Winslow, TJ Houshmandzadeh, Baltimore defense and John Carney combine for a grand total of 23 points. In the other league I was facing Tom Brady. Go figure.

The most surpising thing in Week 6 was the improved play of the scum of the league. The Raiders somehow beat the Eagles and held them to less points than the Phillies put up later that night. The Bills beat Rex Ryan's suddenly free-falling Jets. I knew Mark Sanchez was going to have a wake up call but I sure didn't think it would come against the Bills at home. The Buccaneers and Rams both were extremely competitive in their losses and you can say both should've won. The Chiefs picked up their first win, but I can't say it's because they played better...they didn't even score a touchdown. And this leaves me with the mucus that grows on the scum of the league...the Washington Redskins.

Besides the Tennessee Titans (I'll leave them alone this week they dealt with enough embarrassment on the field), there is no team more disappointing than the Skins. I know I've spent a lot of time ripping the Skins on this blog but it's so easy and so fun that I just can't resist myself. The Skins went through another game without a TD, scoring just six points on a Chiefs defense that just gave up 250 yards to Miles Austin. Who? I've blamed the coaching and I've blamed the management and both are worthy of the criticism. But this game is won and lost on the field and frankly the Redskins' players just aren't that talented.

Let's take a closer look. Jason Campbell is an average NFL quarterback, nothing more, nothing less. He can't carry this offense by himself and especially not with his offensive line being as banged up as it is. I actually feel sorry for the guy. He's dealt with immense criticism from a very demanding town. Anything that goes wrong with the offense is instantly his fault. He's had to deal with learning a million different offenses since he's been in the league. He had to deal with Jim Zorn and staff looking to replace him with Jay Cutler of Mark Sanchez this past offseason. He had to answer questions from the media about how this made him feel...something that he handled perfectly and I respect him for the way he handled that. He even had to deal with ridiculous claims that Colt Brennan or Chase Daniel, both of whom have never started an NFL game, should start over him. Now he's almost certainly out of Washington after this season because his contract is expiring. But Campbell simply isn't that good. He has never, ever in his career made a play that makes you stare in amazement. He's ordinary on most days and every once in awhile, he's bad. He will never win a championship because he isn't a leader and I don't think his teammates believe in him when they look into his eyes with that insecure expression. I expect him to be a journeyman backup for the rest of his career. Poor Jason.

The rest of the offense is aging, to say the least. Clinton Portis and Santana Moss, once the stars of this offense are clearly past their primes. Portis will be lucky to find a job next year. Moss is a decent number two or number three wideout in this league. But he can no longer carry the load as an offense's go-to target. The guys that were supposed to ease his load and make an easy transition, Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas, are downright pathetic. That can be blamed on Redskin talent evaluators who missed out on plenty of successful receivers in the 2008 draft including names like Desean Jackson, Eddie Royal, and Mario Manningham. The only pro bowl caliber player is Chris Cooley and even that's stretching it.

The defense isn't a bad unit but they still play like a gang of individuals with no sense of teamwork or unity. There are too many big-name, egotistical players including Deangelo Hall and Albert Haynesworth. Haynesworth is the biggest waste of money in the history of the NFL. The man is fat, out of shape and gives up on the team. There's no place for that in the league. The numbers don't look bad for the Skins defense but that's just because they haven't faced any decent offenses (with the exception of the Giants). Expect this D to get manhandled against the explosive offenses they have left on their schedule.

I really think it's time to blow the whole thing up. And I mean nuke it. If I were a Skins fan, and thank God I'm not, I would hope to see around 75% of the current team gone. Daniel Snyder has always been quick to change things. Well, this is the time no one would blame him if he made some brash personnel adjustments. These adjustments should start at the top with the firing of GM Vinny Cerrato who decided to hire Zorn as head coach over former defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. Look at the Saints' defense (ran by Williams now) this year and tell me Cerrato made the right decision. If you say yes I'll punch you in your face. Zorn is obviously out. It should've been today, hell it probably should've been a week or two ago. He's already had the play-calling stripped from him and given to the bingo-caller Sherman Lewis so he's useless now. I guess Snyder will wait until the bye week to fire him so the new coach has time to adjust (God I wouldn't wanna be that guy). For the Skins sake it sounds crazy but it really would be better for the team if they lose to Philly on Monday night. That way Snyder has no reason whatsoever to keep Zorn and this saga can finally end. All I can say to Snyder is rebuild and rebuild now or you'll wind up turning this franchise into the next Lions or Browns.

Let's me continue grilling people with my 5 clowns of the week.
5. The Bears Redzone Offense
You can read in my blog post on http://compughterratingsnfl.blogspot.com/ about how important it is to have a good redzone offense. The Bears should've beat the Falcons but dumb mistakes inside the 20 cost them the game. A Jay Cutler interception ended at the ATL 12 yard line ended the Bears first drive. A fumble on the goal line by Matt Forte blew another opportunity. And on the final drive of the game there were three costly penalties, including a false start by veteran Orlando Pace on 4th and 1, that killed the Bears. Performance in the redzone separates good teams from great ones.

4. The Eagles
How in the world do you let the Raiders beat you? Andy Reid...you were outcoached by Tom Cable. Tom Cable! He looks like you 15 years ago with a little bit of roid rage. No way you should let him beat you though. Donovan McNabb was outperformed by Jamarcus Russell. This is a travesty! However, for the Eagles this pathetic of a loss came at about the best time possible...the Phillies are winning and they play the Skins next week. So the Philly media may take it easy on you.

3. Tennessee Defense
I know I said I wouldn't embarrass them but come on, it's just irresistible. Everyone says Tom Brady is back but maybe the Titans are just that bad. Nonetheless it's looking like Jeff Fisher should be gone by the end of the year.

2. Steven Hauschka K Baltimore Ravens
I wonder how many times Hauschka threw up in the locker room after missing that 44 yard field goal. Not only did this cost the Ravens the game, it cost them a chance to deliver the Vikings their first loss, it cost them a chance to grab a tie for first in the division with the Bengals and Steelers, it cost Joe Flacco a lot of deserved recognition for a remarkable comeback, and worst of all, we have to hear about "Brett Favre Magic" for another week. Ugh!

1. Dante Wesley DB Carolina Panthers
Dante Wesley gets the Bozo nose for being the clown of the week. There was no excuse for what Wesley did on the football field Sunday, recklessly laying out a defenseless Clifton Smith who was trying to catch a punt (check out video above). Football is a dangerous and violent sport with enough injuries taking place throughout the natural course of games. It's unacceptable for players to deliver cheap shots on top of this and further endanger players. You can bet that Wesley has something coming to him the next time these two teams meet.

Check in for more later this week everyone. I'm out.

What the hell do I know?

2009-10-14T18:35:00.014-04:00

There's a reason why "NFL" stands for "Not For Long". The NFL is by far the most unpredictable of the major professional sports. Any team can beat anybody on any given day (unless you're the Rams). You never know when an injury will end someone's season and maybe even a team's season along with it (the Patriots know all about this). One team can look perfect for eight games and then inexplicably lay an egg. Other teams can look like they belong in the ACC and then play out of their minds. There's just no way of knowing what's going to happen. Take this week for example. Here are my top 10 shockers from Week 5.

10. The Dolphins have the most exciting offense in the NFL. Against the Jets, Tony Sparano called one of the best games I've ever seen. Rex Ryan and this supposedly immovable Jets defense looked lost. I absolutely love the wildcat and all the variations the Dolphins have. They can have Ronnie Brown take the snap and run or throw, Pat White take the snap and run or throw, run misdirection plays, put Chad Henne or White out wide, the options are endless. They've obviously practiced this a lot and it's really been clicking the past two weeks. What's scary is that Miami looked like a very good offense in traditional formations as well. Henne was on the money all night getting the ball to the tight ends and hit Ted Ginn perfectly on a deep ball for a touchdown, something that's hard to do with Ginn's blazing speed. I know it's really early but I think Henne is the future of this franchise. Losing Chad Pennington for the season may have been the best thing that ever happened to them.

9. The 49ers dismal performance against Atlanta. I'm not surprised that my boys lost to the Falcons at home. Atlanta was coming off a bye and had plenty of time to prepare for this one. But what shocked me was how a team that prides itself on mistake-free, disciplined football could play that poorly. Especially with Singletary not allowing that kind of nonsense. The Niners looked like their counterparts from across the bay with their play on Sunday. Penalties, turnovers, wasted timeouts, blown coverages, premature celebrations...you name it. I really could fill an entire article with how pathetic that game was. At least the 49ers have a bye week this week to straighten things out. And if players thought that bye would involve relaxing, they better think again. Singletary will practice them to death. I just hope he doesn't get so mad that he pulls a Bob Knight and starts hitting players.

8. Miles Austin? I've heard of this guy but I still can't believe the numbers he put up against the Chiefs-10 catches, 250 yards, 2 TD. He had more yards and touchdowns in that game than the useless Roy E. Williams has all season. That's the biggest shocker. How does Romo have such success with Austin who is normally a fourth or fifth option in this offense, but he can't get in a rhythm his number one wide receiver. Blame it on Williams. I say start Austin for the rest of the season. He is faster and has better hands.

7. Braylon Edwards all of a sudden has great hands. You know Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson were swearing at the TV Monday night while watching Edwards make tough three highlight-reel catches. I can hear it now, "where the f--- was that when I was throwing to you!!!". It's amazing how some athletes get out of a tough situation and everything just seems to click. Look at guys like Randy Moss, Ron Artest and even Manny Ramirez when they switched teams. I think Edwards is going to like it in New York.

6. The Ravens blow a game to the Bengals with poor defense and mental mistakes. The Ravens of old would laugh if a team thought they would take the ball 80 yards in the final minutes to win. The Ravens of old would probably force a four-and-out and go home with the W. They certainly wouldn't allow Carson Palmer pick apart their secondary. And there's no way in hell they'd commit three inexplicable penalties to extend the drive. Can't blame this one the refs Baltimore. That defense needs to get it together.

5. Matt Hasselbeck is more important to his team than any other player is to their team (excluding Peyton Manning). Look at this stat: In the two games he's completed this season, Seattle outscored their opponents 69-0. In the three games he didn't play (or at least finish) Seattle was outscored 82-46. Against Jacksonville on Sunday, Hasselbeck threw four TDs and Seattle looked like their old form. With Hasselbeck back, Seattle can go back to hoping for another division title.

4. Tennessee is 0-5?! How in the world is a team that had the best record in the NFL last season 0-5 the following season? I knew that last year was fluky for Titans. They had an easy schedule, little attention placed on them, and absolutely maximized their potential.... at least in the regular season. There was no way they'd go 13-3 again. But I certainly didn't think they would fall this far. Their passing defense is downright pathetic, they turn the ball over, commit poor penalties and now all of a sudden the longest-tenured coach in the league, Jeff Fisher may be on the hot seat. At least their first few games were all close. But in the last two games they've been outscored 68-26! They let the Jaguars beat them by 20 and it should've been worst than that if Tennessee didn't score some points in garbage time. This team stinks and now they'll get the fun task of playing an angry Patriots team on Sunday.

3. LaDainian Tomlinson's fall from grace. It's surprising how little attention this story is getting. LT was the best running back in this league for a 3-4 year period and maybe the most dynamic back we had ever seen. He had the chance to break Emmitt Smith's career rushing record and even Jerry Rice's total touchdowns record. Now he can barely go a quarter without getting injured or re-aggravating an old injury. If he plays an entire game, he usually doesn't get more than 10 or 12 carries. I don't know what's happened to him but it's sad to see. For the Chargers it's not just sad, it's painful. They went out on the limb for the guy and signed him to a new contract, hoping that he'd turn it around. So far it doesn't look good. The Chargers are going to need him to step up because they can't just torch everyone in the passing game. And Darren Sproles isn't big enough to take 20 carries a game and be effective. Right now it looks like LT will be another running back who couldn't handle turning 30

2. Denver is 5-0?! If you told me a couple months ago that the Broncos would be 5-0 to start the season I would've recommended you to the nearest mental hospital. They had as bad an offseason as you could possibly ask for. Let's go through everything that happened. You can start off with the team's epic collapse last year when they only had to win one of their final three games to take the AFC West and couldn't do it. The rocket-arm "star" quarterback (of course I still refuse to call him that) wants out and gets out. They lose their hall of fame coach Mike Shanahan and replace him with someone who still gets IDed at any bar. I'm sorry but Josh McDaniels looks younger than me and I'm 23. The star receiver wants out and is quitting on the team in practice because he isn't getting enough money. I'm sure you all have seen the video I posted below. I had them at 4-12 in a heated battle with the Chiefs and Raiders for the last place spot in the division.

So, how did this team turn it around? Kyle Orton has quietly (as always) led this team by not making mistakes and letting the players around him make plays. We forget that Denver has some weapons on offense: Marshall, Eddie Royal, Tony Scheffler, and the additions of Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter. Even more credit goes to Mike Nolan for completely changing this defense which is now first or near the top in many categories. Why couldn't he be this successful in San Fran And of course plenty of credit goes to Josh McDaniels for not letting this team fall apart and for pushing them to beat teams they weren't supposed to beat.

1. The Bengals are in first place. Yeah, I said it the Bengals are in first place. It just doesn't sound right when it comes off the tongue does it? Another comeback win for the cardiac cats. They keep finding more and more exciting ways to win football games. And their most exciting finish was the game they lost opening day to Denver on that fluke 90 yard TD. So they should be undefeated right now. I came into the season thinking that the two best teams in AFC were from the AFC North, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Well, the Bengals just beat those two in the last three weeks. Cincinnati has done it with great defense and timely offense. Defensive end Antwan Odom has been tearing it up, he already has eight sacks. Their linebackers, Dhani Jones, Keith Rivers and rookie Rey Maualuga have been solid. And their secondary, led by CB Jonathan Joseph has been great. Carson Palmer has been clutch, engineering game-winning drives in each of the past three wins. People forget that Palmer was a Pro Bowl QB before all of his injuries. Cedric Benson is maybe the toughest running back in the league. And Ochocinco looks like his old self. I still don't think they are going to win that tough division, but they are a force to be reckoned with.

Three Clowns of the Week

3. Rex Ryan- There's two minutes left in the game, the Dolphins are already easily in field goal range to tie it and could take the lead with a TD. Call timeout! There's no way you benefit by letting the clock tick in this situation. If you stop the Dolphins and they kick a game-tying FG you have no time in regulation to try and score. And if they score a TD like they did, you have no chance of winning the game. Poor decision making by Ryan, who had seemed to make all the right ones before that game.

2. Ray Lewis- People will be oohing and ahhing over his bone-jarring hit on Ochocinco for a while but this play was ridiculously stupid. Your team is trying to prevent a team from scoring on the final drive to win and you extend the drive with a personal foul penalty on a head-to-head hit. What are you doing? This was a costly mistake that in the end cost the Ravens the game.

1. Dre Bly- You are down 35-10 at home to the Falcons and finally catch a break. Matt Ryan gives you a gift interception and all you have is grass in front of you, and Roddy White about two yards behind you. Perfect time to showboat at your own 30 yard line when you still have 70 yards to the endzone with a guys that faster than you right on your heels. Of course the result ends up being a fumble that's recovered by Atlanta. Are you kidding me? I don't know if I've ever seen more of a bonehead play in my life. At least when Leon Lett did it in the Super Bowl his team was up by a million and he was only a yard away from scoring. Then Bly makes comments like this after the game "Dre's going to be Dre'". Dre you are an idiot! I know he apologized later for it but that was coming straight from Singletary's mouth. If he didn't apologize, he'd be out of the league playing in NFL Europe by now.

Poor week for me with my picks as I go 2-3. Of course the three I lost were all to last second scores, Carson Palmer's TD pass for the Bengals, Denver's FG in OT, and Ronnie Browns TD in the closing seconds Monday Night. I did OK with the fantasy picks going 7 for 10 getting all of my fantasy heroes right but only two zeroes right. Oh well there's always next week for the Gridiron Guru.

Hey everyone check out my buddy and sports broadcasting colleague Dave Vatz on his sports blog, Around The Harbor at http://aroundtheharbor.blogspot.com/.

Week 5 Predictions

2009-10-10T22:02:00.000-04:00

Week 5 already? Man the season is flying by. I'm going to be short and straight to the point with my predictions because frankly, I have other stuff to do tonight.

I'm going to have a better week than last week. I can just feel it. And I'm making a vow not to pick Niners games on the blog for the entire season because I know I'll jinx them.

Patriots over Broncos:
That's it, the Broncos win train stops here. This team is going to get a harsh taste of reality in the next six weeks. Look at Denver's schedule: Pats, at San Diego, at Baltimore, Pittsburgh, at Washington, San Diego, Giants. That is the murderer's row of the NFL, besides the Redskins of course. I expect the Pats to put Orton on his butt often in this one. On the other side of the ball I think Champ Bailey will hold his own on Moss but Welker will be the difference.

Ravens over Bengals:
The Ravens are going to play angry after last week's tough loss to New England. That doesn't bode well for the Bengals who played poorly in their lucky win over the Browns last week.

Colts over Titans:
Peyton Manning leads the league in passing. The Titans have the league's worst pass defense. Do I need to say anymore?

Jets over Dolphins
This is the toughest game of the week to pick by far. I think Rex Ryan will have an answer for the wildcat just like he's an answer for almost everything so far this season. Costly errors for Chad Henne against this stingy Jets D will be the difference. Don't get me wrong I think Henne has a bright future ahead of him, but Monday will be tough for him.

Cardinals over Texans
Pick the over in this game. Should be the most exciting game of the week. So many offensive weapons: Matt Schaub, Kurt Warner, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Steve Slaton, Owen Daniels, Kevin Walter. I'll give the Cards the slight edge at home, final score 63-60. Ok maybe it'll be 42-38.

Fantasy Heroes
Donovan McNabb QB PHI

It's nice coming back from injury and facing the Bucs isn't it?

Rashard Mendenhall RB PIT

One of the worst fantasy decisions ever was not starting Mendenhall last week. Ahhhh it still hurts! Heal my pain with a big week this week Rashard!

Ahmad Bradshaw RB NYG

Nothing makes me happier than getting garbage points in fantasy. You just make your opponent so mad because your player is only performing because the game is out of reach. Bradshaw will your man for garbage points this week against the Raiders who will only be close in this game if the swine flu infects the entire Giants locker room.

Knowshon Moreno RB DEN

Moreno will be getting all the touches against New England with Correll Buckhalter out for this one. Broncos are always a run-first team so I expect him to touch it 20+ times

TJ Houshmandzadeh WR SEA

Tied for the worst passing defense with the Titans are the Jaguars. Housh looked a lot better last week, going over 100 yards. I like him to continue the success this week. It could look even better if Hasselbeck plays tomorrow.

Fantasy Zeroes
Ronnie Brown RB MIA

I don't know if you can sit Brown because of his success so far but if you have another viable option I'd say do it. The Jets are going to stack the box and force the inexperienced Henne to beat them.

Steve Smith WR NYG
The most productive fantasy receiver this season will face the toughest corner in the league this week...Oakland's Nnamdi Asomugha who shuts down the best WR's in the NFL. With Eli banged up its going to be the Jacobs and Bradshaw show anyway.

Steven Jackson RB STL

Jackson might have 30 carries for 30 yards this week against the Vikings. Minnesota might put all eleven guys in the box with no corners and Kyle "I should've been a" Boller still couldn't beat them.

Cedric Benson RB CIN
Same thing goes for Benson. He has been the focal point of the Bengals' offense so far. The Ravens will take that away.

Joseph Addai RB IND
The Titans run D is still impressive and you know with their poor pass defense that Manning will air it out all day.

Ok, that's it. Let's see how we do.

What Rivalry?

2009-10-10T01:29:00.003-04:00

In the NFL, there might not be two franchises put in a brighter spotlight by their respective cities than the Redskins and the Cowboys. Washington D.C. and Dallas worship the Redskins and Cowboys and often live and die by the teams’ successes and failures. These two teams are a couple of the most storied in football history and make up what is considered the greatest rivalry in the NFL. And according to forbes.com, they are the two most profitable franchises in the NFL (Cowboys 1 Skins 2). So everything should be going fine for these teams right? Not at all..

Right now the Skins and Boys find themselves at a crossroads. They’ve built a reputation around success and have fan bases so reliant on achievement that the teams can no longer meet the fans’ expectations. The Redskins now are tied with the Lions for the longest drought without an NFC Championship appearance. They haven’t been there since they played the Lions in the 1992 NFC Championship game on their way to a Super Bowl victory. The Skins have only won three playoff games in that span.

The Cowboys infamous streak without a playoff win (now at 12 seasons) has became a giant storm cloud looming over the franchise and there’s no sign that the sun is going to shine anytime soon. Especially with the way Tony Romo seems to fold under pressure.

This season, both teams have gotten off to perplexing starts. Both are at 2-2 but have disgusted their fans with some lackluster performances. The Skins’ two wins came against the two worst teams in the league (Rams, Bucs), one of which they won without an offensive touchdown. Washington has totaled just four offensive TDs all season, placing head coach Jim Zorn in the middle of a frenzy of disgruntled fans and harsh critics for his questionable (at best) play calling. The Cowboys’ wins came against two winless teams (Bucs, Panthers) and have shown that when the game is on the line that they can’t come up with the big plays. Romo looks completely out of sync with his receivers, the defense gives up big plays and the team continues to make costly mental errors.

Let’s take a look at the two franchises at a deeper level. It all starts at the top. Both are led by media-seeking, trigger-happy and shall I say ridiculously greedy owners: Daniel Snyder and Jerry Jones. And maybe that’s where the problems start. Ever since buying the Redskins, Daniel Snyder has been quick to make changes. He wasn’t satisfied with the personnel, so over the years he’s brought in big-name players like Deion Sanders, Mark Brunell, Dana Stubblefield, Dan Wilkinson and now Albert Haynesworth. All of these players were brought in past their primes (we’re yet to see about Haynesworth but it isn’t looking good) and were completely overpaid. Snyder changed coaches too often, most notably dumping Marty Schottenheimer for Steve Spurrier. How did that one turn out again? He even switched the name of the Redskins stadium from Jack Kent Cooke (previous Skins owner) field to Fedex Field very shortly after taking over as owner! He couldn’t even honor the Cooke family that was responsible for establishing the Redskins tradition! Of course this was done to make the $207 million offered by Fedex to put their name on the stadium.

It’s always been about money with Snyder. Ticket prices, concessions and parking have gone up. He pays some of his coordinators more than other head coaches in this league. This team was built around tradition, loyalty and consistency. It was defined by players like Darrell Green, John Riggins, and Art Monk who played all or most of their careers in Washington. There aren’t any players on this year’s team that Skins fans can relate to like the aforementioned legends. This is partly because most of the players haven’t been there long enough to develop the true “Redskin” identity. Fans are disgusted with the constant change that has yet to bring success. Their vociferous outcry is evident at home games where they hold signs and make public displays of their dissatisfaction. I heard of one fan wearing a shirt that said, “Daniel Snyder…making Jack Kent Cooke roll over in his grave since 1999.”

Similar to the Skins, Jones and the Cowboys have gone out and brought in high-profile players to numerous positions. Bringing in guys with character issues like Terrell Owens and Adam “Pacman” makes Jones remind me of Al Davis. Then they’ve had to deal with other big-name, high-ego guys like Tony Romo, Flozell Adams and Roy Williams (the safety). Then of course Jones made the ultimate mistake of bringing in Wade Phillips who I think just isn’t tough enough to be a head coach.

Now Jones goes out and gets the Buckingham palace of football stadiums to bring in even more revenue to the NFL’s most profitable franchise. The real question is how is that going to help the team win?

Jerry Jones hasn’t received anywhere near the criticism that Snyder gets on a daily basis. Overall, the city of Dallas has a favorable view of Jones. Of course he has three Super Bowls to show for his work. But as I’ve said many times, this is a “what have you done for me lately?” league. And lately the Cowboys have flat out underachieved with teams talented enough to win Super Bowls. I think the pressure of playing for a guy like Jones is getting to the coaches and players. And the billion dollars spent on the stadium can only add to that. I know Jones found a way to win in the 90s, but he was given the gift of maybe the best QB/RB/WR trio of all-time in Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin. I don’t think he’s going to be able to do it soon with this cast of players that has no definitive leader and all the pressure of the Jones’ eyes on them at all times.

Jones and Snyder have both taken the George Steinbrenner approach to running a team. But what they both don’t realize is that in the NFL, this can’t work. You can’t have a big-name player at every starting position. Football isn’t like baseball where everyone does their own thing and you don’t always have to interact with your teammates. Football is more of a team sport than any other sport and to have a successful team you need a core of role players that don’t have the individualistic mindset. You need players that put the team above themselves. This is what the Patriots, Steelers, Ravens, and Giants did on their respective championship teams. Notice how the Patriots haven’t been able to win since bringing in all the big names (Moss, Welker, Adalius Thomas, etc). When you have an overload of star players, there are just too many egos and contrasting interests that distract the team from the common interest of winning a championship. The symptoms on the field are miscommunication, bad penalties, and turnovers. Hey Skins and Cowboys fans, any of this seem familiar to you?

Snyder seems like winning isn’t even on his agenda and has left Skins fans as hopeless as Orioles fans when dealing with Peter Angelos. But unlike Angelos, Snyder actually makes moves, just all the wrong ones. You can tell that Jerry Jones wants to win, but he makes his decisions completely based on talent, not on the character or work ethic of a player. And I don’t think that coming down on the sidelines in the fourth quarter of games helps anybody. I don’t care how long he’s been doing it.

The way I see it, the Cowboys and the Redskins are in real trouble. The fans are fed up, the media is firing at them from every direction, and the locker rooms are filled with tension. It might not be long before we see both these teams completely implode before our eyes. After the teams’ performances in the past decade or so, this rivalry is to the NFL what the Army-Navy rivalry is to the college football, meaningless to everyone but the teams and fans involved.

Week 4 Wrap Up

2009-10-07T02:36:00.000-04:00

It's the most wonderful time of the year. The Major League Baseball playoffs are about to begin, we're in the middle of another exciting NFL season, and the NBA and NHL seasons are starting (Go Caps!). Now at least I don't have to sit around all week long waiting for Sunday to come.

Last week I did sit around waiting for Sunday to come...and it surely didn't disappoint, partly because the 49ers crushed the Rams, but mostly because there were plenty of great games.

Brett Favre didn't disappoint the Minnesota faithful against his former team...playing possibly the best game since his 6 TD performance against Arizona last season. Great atmosphere and a great game at the Metrodome. Give credit to Aaron Rodgers who played very well but there was just not enough protection and too much Jared Allen.

For the second time in three years, the Pats pulled out a game against the Ravens that they shouldn't have won. In both cases the refereeing played a big part in deciding the game. Last time New England was stopped on 4th down twice near the end of the game but a late timeout and a false start penalty bailed them out. This time it was the refs protecting Tom Brady with two roughing the passer calls as well as missing a pass interference call against the Pats on Baltimore's last drive.

And somehow the Broncos keep finding ways to win. What a play made by Brandon Marshall to make the Dallas defenders look foolish..Everyone sleeps on Kyle Orton, but he continues to win games. Also, give props to Mike Nolan for making Denver a defensive force. Now for Dallas. It's painful to watch them play even though I'm not a fan and could care less what they do. They have so many talented players that will show flashes of greatness snuggled between dumb mistake after dumb mistake. Errant passes, dropped balls, missed tackles and penalties have marked the first quarter of their season. This kind of undisciplined play reflects poorly on coaching. It's inevitable that Wade Phillips is gone after the season is over.

Unfortunately the three aforementioned games screwed my picks over from last week. So I'll have to swallow my first sub-.500 week (2-3) to drop my season record to 10-5.

With my fantasy projections last week I accidentally had six "Start 'Ems" and only four "Bench 'Ems".
Start 'Ems: 3 for 6
Correct- Glen Coffee (106 all purpose yds), Steve Slaton (89 total yds 2 TD), Carson Palmer (230 passing yds, 2 TD 1 INT)
Incorrect- Wes Welker (48 yds receiving), Jason Campbell (170 yds 2 TD 3 INT, lost fumble), Darren McFadden (-3 rushing yds...what the hell happened)

Bench 'Ems: 2 for 3

Correct- Kellen Winslow (21 yds), Darren Sproles (0 carries, 1 rec, 16 yds),
Incorrect- Pierre Thomas (132 total yds, TD)
In the middle- Matt Cassel- I'm not counting this one against me of for me. Cassel didn't play well, throwing for only 127 yds on 15 of 32 passing. His 2 TDs were in garbage time against the Giants.

Now for a new segment that I'm going to call High Five/ Low Five where I rank the five best and worst teams, impact players, coaches, or whatever I think is interesting.

Five Best Teams
1. Giants- Based on the Giants past two seasons and their 4-0 start, there's no way they should be ranked any lower. This is truly a balanced offense and Eli has shown that he can take the team on his shoulders if need be.

2. Colts- Many predicted that the Colts offense would have a significant drop-off this year. I think Peyton Manning took that to heart and is making the rest of the league pay for it. It's scary that they've been this dominant with all the injuries. An all-Manning Super Bowl is something we can at least realistically dream about.

3. Vikings- No team is better up front on both sides of the ball then the Vikes. The proof was all there Monday night. Favre had all the time in the world to throw (7.4 seconds on one play) and wasn't sacked the entire game. And we all saw what Jared Allen and the Vikings' D-line did to Aaron Rodgers.

4. Saints- The Saints have won their four games by an average of 19.5 pts/game and have beaten two teams that I believe will make the playoffs (Jets, Eagles). Drew Brees hasn't looked invincible the past two weeks but that just means the Saints are more of a complete team than we thought. If that defense continues to produce points like it has, look out

5. Patriots- When all is said and done, I think the Patriots will be a better team than the Saints. But right now their body of work doesn't warrant that kind of rating. They lost to a team the Saints beat (Jets) and they've struggled on offense for most of the four games. Pulling off wins over the Falcons and Ravens the past two weeks is impressive.

Five Worst Teams
1. Rams- St. Louis has been handed two shutout losses and scored just 24 total points. The Saints doubled that in their first game! They looked downright pathetic against the Niners. It doesn't get much easier when they face Minnesota next week

2. Buccaneers- I still can't get over their horrible offensive outing against the Giants in Week 3. They hung in there against the Skins, but that really isn't saying much these days. Josh Johnson will have a long season ahead of him.

3. Chiefs- The Chiefs offense is abysmal. They have the worst 3rd down conversion percentage in the NFL. If Matt Cassel, is going to be a star QB, he's going to need some help from his offensive line. Maybe Willie Roaf can crawl out of retirement at 50 years old...it would actually be an improvement.

4. Browns- At least the Browns were competitive against the Bengals. They look much better with Derek Anderson taking the snaps. And the combined record of the teams they've faced is 14-2. Ok enough positive talk, they're still bad. They have no star power and no identity.

5. Raiders- The Raiders impressive performance in their season opener against the Chargers seems so long ago. I still don't understand why they cut Jeff Garcia.

Coaches most likely to be fired after the season (or during)

T-1 Jim Zorn/Wade Phillips- take "most likely" out of this statement. There's no way either of these two come back next year.

3. Dick Jauron- T.O. isn't the answer in Buffalo. I'm not sure if anything is. The Bills are just cursed.

4. Raheem Morris- During their next coach search maybe Tampa Bay's management will look for a guy that's not young enough to be Ronde Barber's son.

5. John Fox- At some point Carolina has got to get sick of the one year on, one year off program that the Panthers have been on for the past six years.

Top Five MVP Candidates
1. Peyton Manning- He's thrown for over 300 yds each game this season. At age 33 he looks better than ever. With the changes in personnel on offense, it proves that it's Peyton can do it with anyone around him.

2. Drew Brees- Brees has cooled down a bit lately, but we know he can turn it on at any point.

3. Eli Manning- Eli has done a great job handling the pressure of playing in New York and living in his brother's shadow. I don't care what anyone says, he a star in this league.

4.Adrian Peterson- I know he hasn't been explosive the past couple weeks, with defenses gearing up against the run, but he ranks second in the NFL in rushing yards and has 5 TDs.

5. Darren Sharper- I know it's crazy to think of a free safety winning the MVP. But right now he deserves to be in the discussion. He has added big play ability to a secondary that was known for giving them up. His five interceptions and two touchdowns lead the league.

Keeping checking out The Gridiron Guru all week and season long.

Fantasy Friday

2009-10-03T02:29:00.001-04:00

Well, technically it's Saturday now. But when do I ever make a post before midnight. Many questions will be answered in Week 4. Who will win the battle between the best pass offense (Saints) against the best pass defense (Jets)? Can the Ravens prove they are the best team in the AFC and take down the Pats on the road? Will T.O. have another ineffective game and completely explode? Will Brett Favre step up or fold in his first game against the Packers? And of course the big one, will my fantasy team improve to 4-0? I guess you guys could care less about that one.

Let's get right to it. Here are my picks for Week 4.

Steelers over Chargers
If you told anyone at the beginning of the season that the Steelers would be in third place with a 1-2 record they would just laugh at you and think you were from Baltimore. That's the situation the Steelers are in...the Bengals are ahead of them. Go figure! With the two road losses Pittsburgh returns home with a must-win game on their plate. Expect an air attack with the 2004 co-draftees going at it. Rivers and Roethlisberger have both seen their teams transform from run-first to pass-first teams and have handled it wonderfully. I like Big Ben to have the last laugh.

Ravens over Patriots
I'm putting my respect of the Ravens to the test in this one. Baltimore has looked dominant through three weeks but they have been susceptible to the passing game. Most notably, was their Week 2 performance when they allowed Philip Rivers throw for 436 yards. But now the Ravens have the ability to put up points with the Pats in case Brady gets the offense clicking this week. I think the Pats inability to score TDs in the redzone along with the Ravens bend-don't-break style of D will allow them to prevail.

Saints over Jets
I can't believe I'm doing this...picking against the Jets again. It's been killing me all season but I have to do it one more time. This matchup between the tough, gritty defense against the high-powered offense is being played in a setting that supports the latter. The Superdome is to the Saints what the Edward Jones Dome was to the Rams Greatest Show on Turf. It'll be too tough for the Jets to stop Drew Brees with a banged up secondary.

Cowboys over Broncos
Denver has had an easy go so far, facing bunnies Cleveland and Oakland in the last two weeks. And their win against Cincy shouldn't have happened. I said before that I don't like the Broncos to make it to the playoffs even in their weak division. The rough schedule starts this week and I expect them to fail their first test. The Broncos two-headed run game with Buckhalter and Knowshon Moreno aren't going to have it that easy. The Panthers Jonathan Stewart and Deangelo Williams couldn't muster up much last week either. So with the game resting on Kyle Orton's shoulders I just don't think they'll be able to do it.

Packers over Vikings
Upset special baby! Brett Favre's first game against the Pack won't go in his favor. What many people don't realize is that the Packers have more to play for in this situation not the Vikings. This is just a typical matchup against the Packers (which is still big) for everyone on the Vikings not named Favre. But the Packers want revenge on the man that used to lead them just two years ago. After a tough win last week I expect the Vikings to be a bit tired and flat. We haven't seen the best out of the Packers or Aaron Rodgers yet. You know Rodgers has been waiting for this moment his whole career, a chance to take down the man he backed up for three years. I think he'll step up to the occasion

Fantasy Projections
Start Em
Glen Coffee- The 49ers are dedicated to the run no matter who's in there. If I were the running back they'd still give me 20+ carries a game. And against the Rams defense I probably would be productive. Coffee should have a solid game, especially if the Niners get up early and run the ball consistently.

Jason Campbell- As bad as the Redskins offense has been putting the ball in the endzone, people don't realize that Campbell is quietly playing fairly well. He has 46 fantasy points thus far and threw for 340 yds last week. I like him against the Bucs defense that has made every opposing QB look like a hall-of-famer.

Steve Slaton- I said that his time would come. Against Oakland's defense, this is when it'll come. This week, I like Houston's offense to be clicking on all cylinders for a change

Darren McFadden- If trends continue, McFadden is due for a career game. Houston is giving up over 200 yards per game on the ground! With Jamarcus Russell's passing prowess expect the Raiders to run early and often. I don't care if they are down by 30, just hand it off Jamarcus. Maybe just let McFadden permanently run the wildcat so we never see your useless body on the field again.

Wes Welker- Welker is a constant producer even against good, disciplined defenses like the Ravens who will focus on shutting down Moss. In a PPR league I like Welker to put up some solid numbers.

Carson Palmer- Remember the days when starting Palmer wasn't even a decision. Wow that seemed really long ago. Well I like him this week...of course I like anyone against the Browns.

Bench Em
Kellen Winslow- He can't be happy having Josh Johnson throw to him this week. If they weren't playing the Deadskins, I'd say the Bucs could be held to below 100 yards of total offense again. Winslow will be lucky to get a catch or two.

Pierre Thomas- Everybody wants to hop on the Pierre Thomas train after his return from injury and a good week against the Bills. I don't like him against the Jets' stingy D. With the secondary as banged up as it is you
can bet Brees will abandon the running game and attack them down the field.

Darren Sproles- Only yards he'll gain will be in the passing game. Also, his touches may be limited with the possible return of LT.

Matt Cassel- Cassel will be facing the league's best passing defense (Giants). The Giants held Byron Leftwich to just 22 yds passing last week and are feasting on turnovers with a +5 give/take ratio in three games. I think Cassel is good for a couple pickles and a fumble.

That's all for the picks and fantasy projections. Let's hope the Jets don't screw me again.

Week 3 Wrap Up

2009-10-01T01:23:00.000-04:00

Time to recap everything that took place last Sunday. Yea, I know it's Wednesday and everyone's already looking ahead to next week but I've been busy and haven't been able to discuss what happened. I'm done talking about the Niners so let's talk about the rest of the league. First I'll review my picks and fantasy projections.

Picks: 4-1 Season: 8-2
Another successful week for the Gridiron Guru as I picked 4 out of 5 right once again. Of course it's been the Jets that burned me for both of those losses. I'm so close to making a vow not to pick another one of their games for the rest of the season. I wasn':t exactly correct in how I thought the games would be won...the Saints won in a defensive battle, the Colts killed the Cardinals, and the Pats game wasn't exactly close as I expected. But hey picking games is just like playing them in the NFL...a win is a win.

Fantasy: Overall 7 for 10
Guys I thought would play poorly 3 for 5
X Marshall: 5 rec 67 yds TD- I'll say that's a good game so I was wrong. Orton finally found Marshall in the endzone
+ Thomas Jones: 14 car 20 yds - Jones was stuffed by a Tennesse D that can stop the run, but not the pass
X Joseph Addai: 63 rushing yds, 3 rec 8 yds TD- I didn't think Addai would be this involved in the Colts offense. It sure helped that the Colts had a comfortable lead
+ Byron Leftwich:.numbers too embarrassing to show- Leftwich and the Bucs were absolutely pummeled by the Giants on Sunday. I've never heard of a QB being moved from the starter all the way down to third string without being hurt. Leftwich found a way to do it. Have fun on the bench Byron.
+ Falcons Defense: No sacks, no turnovers, allowed 26 points and 445 yds- Just imagine how bad it would've been had the Pats been successful in the redzone.

Players I thought would do well: 4 for 5
1/2 Mario Mannigham/ Steve Smith: 11 catches 118 yds TD: I'm going to take a half a point there. Not a bad performance, just not as good as I expected.
+ Kevin Kolb: 327 passing yds 2 TD, 1-yard rushing TD: Great game for Kolb against a reeling Chiefs D. Might be the last we see him though, Eagles have a bye and McNabb might be healthy the following week.

+ Greg Jennings: 2 rec, 103 yds- No TD, but you can't go wrong with over 100 yds. He'll get targeted more as the season progresses
1/2 Felix Jones: 8 car 94 yds, 1 rec 20 yds- I'm being modest and only taking a half a point even though Flying Felix basically did all of this in one half before he was injured. 11+ yards per carry? Man this guy's explosive!

+ Pierre Garcon: 64 yds receiving, TD, 17 yds rushing-Just proves that it doesn't really matter who Peyton Manning throws to

What I learned from Week 3

The Redskins are in deep trouble. I knew the Lions were better than people thought. The Skins looked sluggish on both sides of the ball and can still hold on to the name of the Redzones. Don't blame Campbell who played very well, throwing for 340 yds. This team was supposed to be built around a run game and defense. Well Clinton Portis only carried the ball 12 times for 42 yds and the defense allowed Matthew Stafford to pick them apart. The $100 million man Albert Haynesworth has been a bust as I predicted. He got carted off the field with a sore muscle! Who does that? Apparently there was an all-you-can-eat buffet in the trainer's room. I thought he looked a few pounds heavier in the second half.

So Jim Zorn's job is safe...for now. And it probably will be for the rest of the season because not only is he the head coach, but he's the play-caller and the quarterbacks coach, meaning that there's too many positions to fill if he's canned. I tell you what...if he doesn't get it together he might need to take shelter because Skins' fans might try to burn his house down.

Ravens and Giants remain my top two teams in the league. These two teams put up the most dominating performances of the week on both sides of the ball. Joe Flacco is making a bid for a Pro Bowl appearance the way he's playing. And the Ravens D got back to form against the Browns. We'll see how good they really are next week in Foxboro against the Pats. The Giants one-upped Bmore by only allowing 86 total yards in their shutout of Tampa Bay. Look for a similar outing next week when the G-Men face the Chiefs.

Where's the respect for the Colts? Over the past couple years it seems that the Colts have been completely overlooked. I guess everyone takes it for granted that they will be in the playoffs and never make anything out of it. This team is the model of consistency in a league where that is extremely rare. And most of that can be attributed to Manning, who may break Favre's consecutive games started streak as well as many others.

This year all the talk is about the surging Saints, the surprising Jets and Favre with the Vikings and Brady's return. The Colts just fly under the radar and keep winning despite all of the obstacles they've faced already. New coach, no problem. #2 wide receiver injured (Anthony Gonzalez), no problem, most important defensive player injured (Bob Sanders), no problem. The Colts deserve a lot of credit for their win over the Cards. They had a short week to recover after a grueling win in Miami last Monday night. Then they have to go back to Indy for a couple days before trekking out to Arizona for another primetime game Sunday night. And then they go out and spank the Cardinals, making them look like anything but the defending NFC Champs. Keep sleeping on the Colts, they'll make you pay.

The Steelers can't put teams away. Championship teams aren't supposed to blow fourth quarter leads. The Steelers have done it each of the past two weeks and all of a sudden find themselves in an unfamiliar position...3rd place. I think all of the Steelers' problems can be attributed to their inability to run the ball. If the Steelers had a more effective running game, they would've been able to burn a lot more time off the clock and keep their defense off the field. This would also mean that Roethlisberger wouldn't have to force throws and end up with costly mistakes like the pick-six that the Bengals had on Sunday. Now, Willie Parker is a little banged up, so we'll probably see what Rashard Mendenhall has got. Maybe younger, fresher legs will help out the Steelers. Last year Pittsburgh found ways to win tough close games and so far this year they haven't. If they don't straighten it out soon, the division title will be out of reach before they know it.

The worst can't be any worse. The bad teams in the NFL this year are
really, really bad. It's going to be a hell of a race for Sam Bradford between the Bucs, Browns, Chiefs and Rams. After last week, I'd give the edge to the Bucs who will put in the reliable Josh Johnson at QB next week. The Browns are god awful and might already be firing Eric Mangini, who's seemed to completely lose his team. He has permanently lost the nickname "Mangenius" and anyone who ever uses that term in a form that isn't sarcastic should be shot. Next are the Chefs (purposefully mispelled) were owned by the Eagles last week and actually seemed to play better without Matt Cassel. And fourth worst are the Rams who have actually jumped up on my list because they played decently against the Packers (as decent as a 19-point loss can be) and had a chance of beating the Skins the week before (no major feat either).

0-3 team that could still make the playoffs: Obviously no one is knocked out of the playoffs yet but there's only one winless team that I think has a legitimate shot to get in...the Titans. Their three losses are by a total of 13 points with two of them coming on last second field goals. The Titans do play NFC West this year, which could mean three or four wins. They've only played one divisional game so they can make up ground with some wins there. So it's not over but they really need a win over the Jags this week.

3-0 team not making the playoffs: No, I'm not saying the Jets. It's gotta be the Broncos. Denver has played a couple bunnies the past two weeks (Oakland, Cleveland) and their opening week win over the Bengals was a fluke. Tough road ahead with the entire NFC East left on the schedule. I'll give them credit for cleaning things up after a turbulent offseason, but I don't see them beating out the Chargers to win the division or sneaking into a wildcard spot.

Check in later this week for more from the Gridiron Guru.

Favre Devastates the 49ers...again

2009-09-29T01:42:00.003-04:00

Awful memories crept back into my mind on Sunday. As I watched Brett Favre step onto the field with 80 yards to go facing a four-point deficit to the 49ers with a minute and a half to go, I sat on the edge of my seat with discomfort. My friend Gary, (also a 49ers fan) who was watching the game with me, was way too confident and kept telling me that we had it in the bag. I never feel comfortable in these situations. If I have to rely on one of my favorite teams' defenses to hold onto a lead in the final moments of a game I'm going to be nervous. It doesn't matter if the Terps have a two-point lead on the last possession of a basketball game, if the Orioles are trying to close out a game in the 9th, or if the Capitals are clinging to a one-goal lead in the playoffs. I'm always going to be a little worried. But if Brett Favre has one last drive against the 49ers, I'm absolutely frightened.

After the 49ers won the Super Bowl in the 1994-95 season, it looked like they were going to add a second chapter to their dynasty. The team of the 80s never really had to rebuild, it just reloaded with the transition from Montana to Steve Young and many don't realize how many times the Niners were in contention for the Super Bowl in the 90s. Entering the 1995 playoffs, the Niners were the hottest team in league winning 7 of 8 to close the season and were the 2nd seed in the NFC. San Francisco had a matchup at Candlestick against Favre's Packers in the Divisional Playoffs. Green Bay came out and just smacked the Niners in the mouth repeatedly, rolling to a 27-17 victory. This started a trend that to this day gives me nightmares.

The next season...Packers beat the Niners in the Divisional round at Lambeau en route to a championship. The next season...Packers beat the Niners in Candlestick in the NFC Championship (we had the best record in the NFC that year). The following year when we actually beat the Packers in a Wildcard game after TO's remarkable game-winning catch, I was in tears because I'd never seen the Niners beat Favre (by the way this is the best call by any broadcaster, ever.) Of course the next week we lost to Atlanta. Favre got us one more time in 2001-02 to make it 4 for 5 against the Niners in the playoffs.

Favre may have been my most hated athlete during those times. He possibly took two or three Super Bowls away from San Fran. Who knows maybe we would be looked at as the premiere franchise in the history of the game instead of the Steelers? As the years passed and the 49ers haven't even been part of the playoff hunt, my feelings toward Favre started to change. As he got older, I started to root for him because he continued to make remarkable plays and carry his team against all odds. And of course he wasn't hurting my team!

When Favre stepped into this situation, I thought maybe this time we could hang on. Favre is 80 years old and grayer than ever. The 49ers defense had played remarkably well all season up to that point. And I thought that under Singletary the defense would be too disciplined to give up the big play. But deep down I still had a wrench in my gut. As I watched him run the 2-minute drill, I felt sicker and sicker. And after the 32-yard TD pass to Greg Lewis (who?) with two seconds left, I wanted to yack my chicken cheesesteak and fries all over the bar at Glory Days. The state of shock and anger I was in was indescribable and could only be compared to the way I felt after two Maryland basketball losses: a 2008 loss to Clemson where the Terps blew a 20 point lead with 5 minutes left and the infamous 2001 loss to Duke when Maryland blew a 10 point lead with 50 seconds left. Instantly, I was back to putting Favre on the list of my most hated athletes again.

I was so satisfied with the way the Niners had fought on the road without their best player...only to be handed a sickening loss. At 3-0 we would be in a perfect position to take the NFC West. I know it's early but if we had a two game lead over Seattle and Arizona along with the wins we had already had over both of those teams we would be in great shape. Most of all I just wanted us to be the talk of the NFL. Playing on the west coast and not making the playoffs for the past six seasons I rarely even hear about the Niners on the national spectrum unless it's another coaching change. This kind of road win most certainly would've put us in the spotlight for a change.

It took me three hours to recover from the defeat. I had to watch other football games to get that one off my mind. Of course the constant highlights during halftime and postgame reports made me relapse back into another state of disgust. But there was something that finally gave me an optimistic view of things...Singletary's postgame reaction.

"I'd rather we lose now, taste it, chew on it, swallow it, and get better. I want them to remember what it feels like, learn from it and go from there," Singletary said.

Singletary somehow spins this loss into a positive! He calls it a learning experience. If I were a player or coach, I would've been so devastated I don't think I could've spoke to the media, let alone look at the bright side of things. He shook this loss off like it was a fly on his arm. He is incredibly optimistic and incredibly smart. He knows that with a young team like this, you can't allow them to sulk and let it have an impact on future games. He sends a message to the team to hold your heads up and move on. It seems like Singletary knows how to push all the right buttons to get this team headed in the right direction. This just reflects on what kind of a coach and what kind of a man he is.

All of a sudden I feel OK about the Niners again. Singletary really changed my outlook on the season. If I'm this inspired by Singletary, the players have to be psyched. They can take this loss and use it as motivation to beat their next opponent. It sure helps that the Rams are visiting Candlestick on Sunday. Just anybody but Brett "the 49er killer" Favre

Fantasy Friday

2009-09-26T00:43:00.000-04:00

It's Friday boys and girls. You know what that means...fantasy and game predictions. Only two more days til Sunday! God, football is my life. It should be another interesting week with a lot of big games on tap. By the end of this week we should at least be able to separate the elite teams from the ordinary ones. The 2-0 surprises, 49ers, Jets, Saints and Broncos get a chance to prove if they're ready to take the next step. Then there's the teams trying to avoid the 0-3 disaster start: The Titans, Panthers, Dolphins and Jaguars are in dire need of a win or their seasons are likely over.

But the team that needs a strong performance more than any other team is the Washington Redskins. I know you're probably thinking "What do they have to worry about? They're playing the Lions!" But this game could not only determine the Skins fate this season, but future seasons as well. All the talk around D.C. is about head coach Jim Zorn, whose job may be in jeopardy after two consecutive lackluster offensive performances to start the season. The Skins are being called by 106.7 The Fan radio personality Mike Wise as the Washington Redzones for their inability to score touchdowns when they get inside the 20. The Skins have only one offensive TD, which came in garbage time against the Giants. Zorn's questionable play calling has been grilled by everybody, including the ancient Sonny Jurgensen who during an on-air interview with Zorn, ripped him for calling a halfback pass on 3rd and goal. When Jurgensen said he would've called a timeout before running that play, Zorn lashed out saying he would've benched the hall-of-famer. I love that response...putting the old man in his place...the most fire I've seen from him since landing the head coach position. Don't get me started on Jurgensen. I can't stand that geriatric idiot. I'm going to dedicate an entire post to criticizing him in the near future.

Back to Zorn, the talk of the town is that he's hosed with a loss to Detroit or maybe even another ugly win. Daniel Snyder's leash with head coaches is about as short as a string of dental floss. A loss to the laughingstock of the league is likely to cause the leash to rip. I think it's way too soon to get rid of Zorn. In my mind that offense has very little talent and no playmakers. Clinton Portis isn't getting enough carries and Santana Moss just isn't that effective anymore. But the Washington area is very demanding of it's Skins and so is the trigger-happy Snyder. The scary thing is that the Lions have improved. They were leading the Vikings for a good part of last week's game and they are definitely hungry. A win is coming soon for them and if it's next week...we might see the Skins implode before our eyes.

Ok, lets get to some fantasy. We'll start out with the guys I expect to have down performances.

1. Brandon Marshall WR Broncos
I wouldn't start the diva if I were you. Marshall only has 7 catches thus far and hasn't gotten in any rhythm with Kyle Orton. He also missed practice on Wednesday with an illness (maybe another attempt to renegotiate his contract?) although he's listed as probable. Lastly and most importantly, Marshall will be facing the best corner in the league, Nnamdi Asomugha.

2. Thomas Jones RB Jets
I don't advise you to start running backs who are facing the Titans defense even though they're 0-2. No exception here. Thomas Jones has looked subpar except for some late runs in garbage time against the Texans in week one. The Titans are going to make sure to stack the box and make Mark Sanchez beat him.

3. Joseph Addai RB Colts
Addai has been killing me with his lack of production in fantasy. Why did I have to be on a slow computer that froze during the draft? He was autopicked for me and probably the reason why I lost in one of my leagues. Against the Cardinals he will not be used much as it will be a Manning-Warner showdown in the desert. What's even worse for Addai is that Donald Brown played very well last week...scoring a touchdown and caught some balls out of the backfield.

4. Byron Leftwich QB Buccaneers
Everyone that jumping on the Leftwich bandwagon better hold on for at least a week. I don't foresee him putting up the same numbers against the Giants D this week. I am surprised that he's doing as well as he has without Antonio Bryant being effective. But expect Leftwich to have some costly turnovers this week.

5. Atlanta Defense
The Falcons defense has played surprisingly well so far, prompting many to pick them up in fantasy. However this week I like the Pats offense to rebound at home. And if Welker is back and somewhat effective, I really like the Pats to move the ball well on the Falcons defense.

Get these guys in your lineup ASAP!

1. Mario Manningham/ Steve Smith WRs Giants
I told you to forget about Domenik Hixon. These two got silly against a Dallas secondary that's begging for mercy. Their reward: a date with the Bucs defense who give up more big plays and are currently in the process of trying to bribe Monty Kiffin to come back. Manningham is averaging 16 yds/rec...a number that I think will increase after this matchup. I don't think they'll get 10 catches each like last week but I'd expect at least a combined 180 yds and 2 TDs.

2. Kevin Kolb QB Eagles
Everyone seems to be looking at Kolb's three picks against the Saints and forgetting that he threw for 390 yds last week. No, neither Jeff Garcia or Michael Vick should be starting despite what some clowns think. Kolb draws another favorable matchup at home against Kansas City. I like him to put up similar numbers to last week with less interceptions.

3. Greg Jennings WR Packers
I know a lot of Jennings owners were freaking out when they saw the goose egg that Jennings put up last week but there's no reason to panic. The best cure for an ailing offensive performance is getting the Rams the next week. Aaron Rodgers and Co. should be playing angry after the surprising loss to the Bengals and put up some big numbers this week.

4. Felix Jones RB Cowboys

I seriously don't understand why Jones doesn't get the ball more. He's a playmaker with some serious wheels. I think he's the perfect compliment to Marion Barber and his punishing style of running. For some reason the Cowboys are taking carries away from Jones and giving them to Tashard Choice. This week Barber is out so it's just Jones and Choice...and a chance for Felix to showcase his talent against a Carolina defense that's given up 336 yards on the ground in two games.

5. Pierre Garcon WR Colts
This is my sleeper pick of the week. With Anthony Gonzalez still out, Garcon is the #2 receiver. He had the big touchdown grab in the Monday night win over the Dolphins. Manning got all the credit but Garcon made that play...he adjusted to a low throw on the WR screen and then smartly cut back to the middle of the field where his blockers were. Reggie Wayne hasn't seen single coverage all year so there should be some openings for Garcon against Arizona.

Picks:
Titans over Jets:
This is an absolute must win for Tennessee and they know it. Expect the defense to put a lot of pressure on Sanchez and try to make him look like a rookie for a change. I don't like betting against the Jets with the way they've made me pay the last two weeks with surprising victories. But I think desperation will prevail over a possibly complacent and satisfied Jets team.

Colts over Cardinals:
I'm not convinced that the Cardinals have righted the ship after one win over the struggling Jags. This game will be a serious test for them. The over/under on total passing yards for the two teams is probably 1000. I like Peyton Manning to come up with another game-winning drive on primetime television to take this one.

Patriots over Falcons:
This is such a tough one to pick but I'm not gonna take the easy route and pick bunnies on this blog. The Pats have always found ways to rebound from disappointing losses, even though I don't think they are the Pats of old. Brady has gotta get it going at some point. It should be interesting to see Matty Ice Ryan perform in a homecoming in New England. With this pick I'm taking using my head over my heart and taking the Pats. But I really hope I'm wrong...I love this young Falcons team and obviously can't stand the Pats.

Saints over Bills:
Nobody can stop Drew Brees right now. I don't expect that to change in Buffalo. Expect another shootout, which is pretty much every game the Saints are involved in. I do think Buffalo will be pose the stiffest challenge the Saints have faced thus far. And if this game were being played in December I'd probably go the other way. But the weather is still warm enough in Buffalo for Brees to air out all day. Saints 3-0

Dallas over Carolina
If you are betting with spreads you gotta take the Panthers in this one getting nine points. I know it seems like the Panthers are horrible but let's keep in mind that they've played the Eagles and Falcons to start the season. Carolina might not be that bad but I don't see them overcoming a Cowboy team that wants to impress at their new stadium. They'll get a second chance in primetime to get their first win there. I wonder if Jerry Jones paid somebody off to get his first two home games at the new arena played at night. In another close game, I like the Cowboys to be on the other side and come up with a W.

You're probably wondering why I didn't pick the Niners-Vikings game, which shockingly is the only matchup between undefeated teams. I really don't know what to expect in this one. I know the Niners aren't a fluke but I'm not sure if they're ready to win another big one on the road. It's not going to be easy for Frank Gore to run on this behemoth-stacked defensive line.AP isn't going to have an easy defense to run against either I would pick the under for total points with these two defenses. Hopefully the Niners will ruin Favre's home debut.

What a Week!

2009-09-22T23:49:00.000-04:00

In my time watching football I don't think I've ever seen such an entertaining start to the season. The storylines, surprise teams, big plays and thrilling finishes have made the football fans forget...it's only September! The NFL couldn't have asked for a better start to the season. All six primetime games this season have come down to the final minutes, which is more than the NFL could've hoped for. In Week 2, there were 10 games decided by 8 points or less. Five of these included game-winning scores in the final four minutes.

So what can we take from this bizarre week?

1. The Jets are for real. I was completely wrong in thinking the Pats would dominate them. Rex Ryan said that Bill Belichick was a better coach than he was before the game, but he outcoached his counterpart in this one. The Jets defense has stopped two of the top offenses in football in consecutive weeks. Mark Sanchez looks as poised as I've seen a young QB since...dare I say Tom Brady? I know it's a little early for that but this kid stepped up to the challenge and the great thing is that he looks like he's having a blast out there on the field. Man do I love seeing the Pats get beat.

2. The Pats just don't seem right. I feel like anytime Belichick loses, he becomes a mad scientist who has to go back to the lab again and frantically figure out the right formula for victory. But this year that might not be so easy. I'm not one to freak out over Tom Brady being out of rhythm like everyone else. This is just another instance of "What have you done for me lately" that I talked about last week. But if his productivity doesn't improve in the next few weeks I will be extremely upset. I drafted him in the 2nd round of my fantasy draft even though he's one of my five most hated athletes in sports right now. I can't stand looking at that s---eating grin on his face. But I'm still confident that he'll turn it around. He's Tom Brady after all.

What is worrisome for the Pats is their defense. They only gave up 16 points against the Jets but it could've been a lot worse if the Jets did a better job in the redzone. The Pats failed to make the crucial stops on 3rd down, to get their defense off the field. They look like they're missing the old vets Bruschi, Vrabel and Seymour. Next week is an even bigger test for this defense when they face the powerful Falcons offense.

Quick Note: This game proved how vital Wes Welker is to this offense. I always believed that it was Moss who created opportunities for Welker to get open but this may not be the case. Moss only caught four balls for 24 yards in Welker's absence. With all the pressure Brady faced, he could've really used his blitz-buster, check-down receiver to make the Jets pay. With his other receivers, Brady couldn't match the timing perfection that he has with Welker. They need him healthy ASAP.

3. Mike Singletary has changed the culture in San Francisco. The 49ers are breaking away from their trend of being a finesse team and playing the type of smash mouth football that defined Singletary as a player. In case you guys didn't hear, Frank Gore is listed as questionable for next week's game against the Vikings due to back problems from carrying the offense. Speaking of injuries, the Seahawks might have to start their entire practice squad on offense after the physical beating they took from the Niners defense. I predicted that the Niners would win, but I was wrong about one thing: they aren't going to back away from the run no matter how many defenders are in the box. On both of Gore's long TD runs, Seattle had eight men in the box. But great blocking and tremendous vision from Gore allowed him to get to the second level of the defense...where there was no one to be found. I'm not going to be one of those guys to jump the gun and call for playoffs just yet and jinx my boys. But starting off with two wins in the division is huge, especially in a sub-par NFC West. I'm just happy to have a coach seems to know what he's doing.

4. Jay Cutler still sucks. I don't care if he beat the defending champs. He just took advantage of a Steeler defense that stacked up on the run to stop the only true star on this offense...Matt Forte. And let's not forget that if it weren't for Jeff Reed's choke job he wouldn't have been in a situation to win that game. I hope Jay bought Reed a beer after the game because those missed FGs saved him from another week of tough Chicago scrutiny.

Quick Note: Check out who shows up when you type in Jay Cutler on Youtube.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGcH2lAJJRQ

I can't help but laugh at that. Real question is which Cutler is less of a d-bag. I vote for the body builder...I think he's smarter too

5. The Giants and the Ravens are the two best teams in football right now. It's possible we could have a rematch of the 2000 Super Bowl this year. A lot has happened in nine years hasn't it? Kerry Collins has made a resurgence with the Titans, Trent Dilfer and Brian Billick are both NFL analysts, Jim Fassel has disappeared from the face of the earth, and Michael Strahan is acting in movies. What has the world come to? One thing hasn't changed....Ray Lewis. Lewis made the big stop to secure the Ravens win over the Chargers on Sunday. It doesn't look like he's slowed down a bit.

Neither the Giants or Ravens manhandled their opponents like the Saints did. But both beat quality teams (Cowboys, Chargers) on the road this week. The Saints are very good but their two wins came against the Lions and a McNabb-less Eagles. I still need to see a strong defensive performance from them to put them on the level of these teams. As for the Giants and Ravens, we know how dominant their defenses are. What's scary is how both teams are ripping it up through the air. The teams' offenses are very similar actually...no big name wideouts, reliable tight ends and multiple effective running backs. The Ravens have to be thrilled with the speedy development of Joe Flacco who is quickly exiting the "game management" stage and entering "play maker" stage of his career. If the G-men and Ravens continue the success in the passing game I don't see them being stopped.

This crazy and exciting week did mess up a lot of my picks for this pool I'm in. What the hell happened Packers, Steelers and Titans? But at least I went 4-1 in the picks I posted on the blog. In my fantasy predictions I went a perfect five for five with my "don't starts" and three for five with my "play-ems". So far I'm living up to my title as "The Gridiron Guru".

Check in later on in the week for more opinions and predictions. Feel free to post comments to the blog or e-mail me at morelandjeremy@gmail.com. I'd be happy to address all of your questions and opinions.

Week 2 Fantasy and Game Predictions

2009-09-19T19:45:00.000-04:00

Time for my first set of fantasy and game predictions. Every week, either on Friday or Saturday I'll pick five players who I think will perform well, five who won't do so well, and pick five of the toughest and most important games. So lets get things started.

Start these guys at your own risk
1. Steelers RBs:
It's extremely rare to find a team built on smash mouth football to be so ineffective in the running game. Since Alan Faneca left the Steelers, their offensive line has never been the same and the Steelers have had to rely more and more on the arm of Big Ben. Willie Parker has struggled to stay healthy and seems to have lost some of his explosiveness. I still think Rashard Mendenhall can be a good running back in this league but it's tough when you can't there's no holes to run through. Neither could do anything against the Titans...don't expect that to change when they face the Bears this week.

2. Kevin Smith:
Tough matchup for Smith going against the Vikings...maybe the best defensive front in football. Expect the Lions to be down early as usual and resort to the passing game. Only way I'd start Smith is if you're in a PPR league (points per reception) because he is one of Matthew Stafford's go-tos. In my PPR league I still benched him for Cadillac Williams.

3. Domenik Hixon:
If you thought Hixon would be Eli Manning's #1 target you were extremely disappointed to see Eli go everywhere else in Week 1. Steve Smith, Mario Manningham and even the rookie Hakeem Nicks came before Hixon. I don't expect any one wide receiver to put up big fantasy numbers this season for the Giants until Nicks comes into his own. Look out, this kid is going to be a great receiver. On the other hand I'd probably drop Hixon to the bench or even the free agent list.

4. Steve Slaton
It's hard to bench a guy like Slaton who gets the majority of the carries in Houston but if you have a decent running back to replace Slaton you might want to make a switch this week. The Titans run defense looks like it hasn't missed a beat even with the loss of Albert Haynesworth. I think you're going to see a lot of Matt Schaub on Sunday. Don't give up on Slaton this season he'll get his eventually, but it just might come later than you'd expect.

5. Antonio Bryant
I think last year was a fluke for a guy who always seems to find himself in trouble off the field. The Bucs will rely on their depth at running back to pound teams in between the tackles. Bryant missed most of the preseason and I don't think him and Byron Leftwich are on the same page yet. The Bills defense is better than the numbers show against the pass. Anyone can get burned for 350 in the air against the Pats.

Play these guys
1. Brian Westbrook
Westbrook has always been a feast or famine guy in fantasy. Thanksgiving might come early for him tomorrow. I really like Westbrook to step up big this week for a multitude of reasons. One, he's facing a Saints defense that still isn't there yet (although they are improved). Two, with Kevin Kolb taking the snaps you can't expect the Eagles to air out as often. Three, the passes Kolb does throw will be dinks and dunks. So expect a lot of screens to Westbrook...I'm thinking 5 or 6 catches tomorrow. Finally, Westbrook is fresh for the time being...you can bet on the injuries to pile up by Week 6 or 7 though.

2. T.O.
Unlike Skip Bayless, I don't think Owens' comments this week are going to affect the team at all. Owens watched his former mates score three TDs of over 60 yards against the Bucs depleted secondary last week. Owens hopes to do the same this week. By the way, when is Ronde Barber going to retire? He's almost old enough to be head coach Raheem Morris' dad! I think Owens is good for at least 80 yards and a score this week. Get your popcorn ready!

3. Percy Harvin
Brett Favre seems to have a real connection with this kid already. Bernard Berrian hasn't been around for most of the preseason so I wouldn't expect him to get targeted too much just yet. It really doesn't matter who lines up at wide receiver against the Lions does it? If I were Brad Childress I'd just tell Harvin to run as far and fast as he can every play. I'd expect numbers similar to what Devery Henderson had last week.

4. Matt Schaub
You might be wondering why I like Schaub this week against Tennessee. Well like I said earlier I don't think Steve Slaton is going to be very effective on the ground. That means Schaub will be throwing a lot...let's say around 40 times or so. The Titans defense struggled to stop the Steelers passing game last week, although it's pretty hard for cornerbacks to cover receivers for 12 seconds while Roethlisberger is scrambling in the pocket all night. You can't expect this powerful Texans offense to be held in check for long...there's just too many weapons. Schaub will get back on track and find Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels often.

5. Santana Moss
I don't like relying on a guy like Moss, who's similar to Westbrook in that he can go big or not show up at all. One day he'll go for 150 and 3 TDs, the next he'll do absolutely nothing. Kinda like last week's 2 catches-6 yds performance. But against the worst team in the league I think Moss is going to step up. It's important that he does so Campbell and this offense can get into some sort of rhythm. I like Jim Zorn to open up the playbook and let Campbell cut it loose and Moss is their biggest (not in size) deep threat. I'm actually starting Moss over Houshmandzadeh this week. I like Campbell for 250+ yds and Moss to have 100+ yds and a TD.

I'm not going to do spreads on my picks, rather I'll just give you five winners. Don't worry, I won't pick the easy games every week. Here are my picks for Week 2:

Baltimore over San Diego- Don't expect the Chargers to have anything going on the ground with LT out. Sproles is too tiny to be successful between the tackles against this defense. I like Flacco to have another strong game against a San Diego secondary that gave up big plays to Jamarcus Russell and wideout Louis Murphy...Who? Yea, Louis Murphy.

New Orleans over Philadelphia- I've been back and forth with this one but I'm going with the Saints to squeak it out in a shootout. The Saints defense will give up a lot of yards but I think they'll get a couple of big turnovers against the inexperienced Kevin Kolb.

Patriots over the Jets- What are the Jets thinking? Fueling the Patriots fire even more. Can you imagine how bad it would be if Ryan said he was a better coach than Belichick. Mark Sanchez will be introduced to the NFL this week. At least he'll find out what the turf and an ice bath feels like.

Giants over the Cowboys- I love how everyone wants to ride the Romo train after one week against a putrid defense. The Giants will pressure the Cowboys early and often, forcing Romo to make some mistakes. I like the Giants to disappoint the Cowboy faithful in a close one at the first game at the new Cowboy Stadium.

Niners over Seahawks- I know, I know I'm really biased. But the Niners are at home, the defense is revamped and the Seahawks weren't tested last week. Don't expect San Francisco to keep running it with eight men in the box. Shaun Hill has shown that he can make some plays and does a good job avoiding mistakes. I like the 49ers to open things up and let him throw it more. Should be a close one but I'm taking my boys.

That's all for now boys and girls. I can't wait for tomorrow!

I want it all, and I want it now!

2009-09-18T00:56:00.000-04:00

Panthers fans are calling for QB Jake Delhomme's head. Skins fans think it's time to pack it in already. And in New York, Mark Sanchez is the next Joe Namath. What week is it again? Oh yea it's just Week 2! There is no bigger "What have you done for me lately" profession than the National Football League.

Delhomme is a former pro bowler and brought the Panthers to the Super Bowl in 2003 and helped them win the NFC South last season. It's understandable that Panthers fans are upset with Delhomme for throwing nine picks in his last two games going back to Carolina's rough loss to the Cards in the playoffs last year. And I know that he has to play better to give the Panthers a chance. But after one game it's too early to bench him. Who else are you going to go to...Matt Moore? AJ Feeley?

The Redskins lost a fairly close game in the Meadowlands to the Giants, who have maybe the best D-line in the league. And now they have three of the worst teams in the league (Rams, Lions, Bucs) in their next three games. Skins fans and some reporters are already writing them off. Just like they've written off Jason Campbell as a decent QB even though he plays in a new offense every year and has no real #1 receiver (sorry, Santana Moss you're just too tiny). Skins fans are so ridiculous that during training camp they were calling for Colt Brennan to be the starter this season! He hasn't even taken a snap in a regular season game! Brennan proved how dumb and naive Skins fans can be by having a poor preseason in 2009 and is now placed on IR. Skins fans need to give this team and quarterback a chance. Hey at least you didn't end up with Jay Cutler!

Now, let's go to the golden boy himself. I have nothing against Mark Sanchez and I'm impressed with his performance in his first NFL start. But I'm afraid that Jets fans are making him out to be a Hall of Famer after one week. Let's remember that Sanchez was facing the Texans, the 22nd ranked defense last season. And he relied on the running game and revamped defense to win that game. Rex Ryan is going to be a very good NFL coach, and I think highly of Sanchez too. But it's very possible that the city of New York places expectations on Sanchez that he won't be able to live up to and could cause him to succumb to the pressure. So let's give it some time Jets fans...you got the Pats this week.

Everyone around the sport of football wants to jump to conclusions about the season after one week. These are just three examples of football cities going overboard with their judgment of their teams after just one week. Why don't we just skip the season and go straight to the playoffs! There's a reason why they play the games. Who knows how much can change in the next week? I understand that each game in the NFL means a lot more than in any other sport and that teams can't afford to throw away games. But come on people, some of the talk is getting ridiculous.

Cutler's Not Gonna Cut It

2009-09-16T23:48:00.000-04:00

So I'll start things out with a rant. And what easier character to cut loose on than the loose cannon himself...Jay Cutler. Loose cannon is the perfect way to describe his performance Sunday night as he made the Packers aged secondary feel young again. Four INT's and a handful of other passes that could've been picked off. It seems that Cutler has this sense of invincibility and thinks he can force passes into double and triple coverage with his strong arm. Well he still has a lot to learn.

I hate how everyone considers Cutler a "star" quarterback. What has he done to earn such accolades? This is just his third year as a starter and he still hasn't appeared in a playoff game. His strong arm and big mouth are strikingly similar to a previous QB who was supposed to be the next star...Jeff George. Yes, Cutler did throw for over 4,500 yds last season. But when his team needed him most, he collapsed, throwing just two TDS and four picks in his final three games leading to the Broncos' epic failure of missing the playoffs. Show me poise and composure under pressure and then I'll call you a "star" quarterback. The Mannings, Bradys and Roethlisbergers have shown me that...you haven't.

What's worse with Cutler is his attitude on the field. You might not think too much of body language, but it's what wins over fans and your teammates in the huddle. From looking at Cutler you'd think he was being forced to play football. He's always got the pouty look of an eight-year-old brat that didn't get the toy he wanted at the store. It's no wonder he's maybe the most hated player in football right now. Only God knows how his teammates handle the attitude. Right now Cutler reminds me of Willie Beamen in Any Given Sunday, the QB that thinks stardom should be handed to him on a silver platter. Soon the Bears might turn into the Miami Sharks and not play for their egotistical QB.

With all of this being said, Sunday night's performance isn't all Cutler's fault. At least two of his picks could be blamed on inexperienced receivers stopping in the middle of their routes. And Desmond Clark did the same thing on a sure touchdown in the back of the endzone. But this just proves that the Bears made the wrong choice...they should've looked for a big name receiver this past offseason. Of course the Bears want to jump the gun on any opportunity to bring in a big-name QB...they haven't had one since Jim McMahon. But Bears football has never been defined by a high-flying offense, it's always been about a smash-mouth rushing attack and a bruising defense. Let's remember this team made the Super Bowl just three years ago with Rex Grossman as their leader.

Kyle Orton was the perfect guy for the Bears. A quiet leader who could manage the game and would let Matt Forte carry the load for the offense. People forget that Orton led this weapon-lacking team to a 9-7 record last year. Cutler only went 8-8 last year with a stacked offense in a much weaker division (albeit a much weaker defense too). With Orton and a top-notch receiver (Boldin or T.O. maybe) this team could've been a real contender.

So the real question is who established that Cutler=Orton + Two first-round draft picks + a second-round pick? That's just absurd. Orton is a winner who maximizes his potential. Cutler is a primadonna who writes checks that his arm won't be able to cash in Chicago. But it's the Bears management who's really to blame. They could've built this offense around Forte and the stout defense. Instead they're stuck with a big mouth QB and no future with all the draft picks they've given away.

The pressure is only going to build as the season goes on. Chicago isn't Philadelphia, but the city can be tough on it's teams and athletes. If Cutler thinks it's going to get easier, he's mistaken. The Vikings and Packers aren't going anywhere and the defending champs are coming to town. Good luck, Jay.

Let's Get Started

2009-09-16T02:38:00.000-04:00

Hi everyone, my name is Jeremy Moreland...I'm a football fanatic from Crofton, MD, a town just 30 minutes outside of our nation's capital. However I could care less about the area's beloved Redskins (or whatever they'll be called in the upcoming years) or the Ravens.

I'm a 49ers fan through and through. Insult me all you want, I've heard it all. I don't care that they play over 3,000 miles away from home or that I've never even visited San Francisco (that has to change). I fell in love with the Steve Young-Jerry Rice tandem but now I've had to suffer through the misery of draft busts (Alex Smith, Vernon Davis, now Michael Crabtree?), coaching idiots (see Dennis Erickson) and six consecutive losing seasons. But I have faith that Mike Singletary will turn things around in San Fran.

This blog isn't going to focus on the 49ers...although I'll mention them whenever necessary (or whenever they do something positive). This blog may not even solely focus on the NFL. I mean I have to give some shout outs to my beloved Terps. But I will make sure to cover the burning issues in the world of football as well as the ones not covered as much. Fantasy football lovers and gamblers check out my predictions for the week on Friday followed by analysis of the week that was by Tuesday.

Pondering the Pigskin will bring you a unique, comical and sometimes harsh view of the athletes, teams and important figures in the world of football. Prepare yourself.